Table Stakes - April 14th

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I’m Daniel, and welcome to Table Stakes!

Here’s a look at today’s topics:

• Hong Kong: “One Country, One System”

• Oman Becomes Key

• 9th Annual CELAC Summit Brings Key Latin American Issues In Focus

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Hong Kong: “One Country, One System”

_{By: Daniel Murrah, Staff Writer for Atlas}

The oldest and largest pro-democracy political party in Hong Kong, the Democratic Party, has moved aggressively toward dissolution. With a last vote needing a 75% majority to decide the party's final fate, more than 90% of party members voted on April 13, 2025 to empower the central committee to start disbandment planning. This turn of events occurs in response to growing pressure from Beijing and indicates what many commentators call "the end of an era" for organized political opposition in Hong Kong.

The Decision

Founded in 1994, three years before Hong Kong's transfer from British to Chinese sovereignty, the Democratic Party has been a mainstay of the city's pro-democracy movement for almost three decades. Led by leaders like Martin Lee and Albert Ho, the party was instrumental in forming Hong Kong's political scene during its transition to Chinese control and helped to create the "One Country, Two Systems" framework that promised the city a high degree of autonomy until 2047.

The vote comes after allegations that Chinese authorities or intermediaries explicitly warned senior party members to disband or suffer serious penalties, including possible detention. Veteran lawmakers called these warnings direct and unequivocal and pushed dissolution before the next legislative elections, planned for December 2025. Expressing confidence that political parties in Hong Kong would keep fighting for the public in spite of increasing difficulties, Party Chairman Lo Kin-hei underlined that the decision reflects present political reality and social situation.

Since the 2019 anti-extradition bill protests that shook the city, the Democratic Party's power has much declined. Beijing enacted a comprehensive National Security Law (NSL) in 2020 following these protests, which has been used to stifle opposition, arrest activists, and change Hong Kong's voting system. These modifications have guaranteed that only "patriots" sanctioned by Beijing can run for office, therefore marginalizing pro-democracy movements. Many Democratic Party officials are currently incarcerated or under NSL legal difficulties, which compromises the capacity of the party to operate even more.

China’s Role

The Democratic Party's drift toward disbandment underlines Beijing's growing hold on Hong Kong and the fast erosion of freedoms promised under the "One Country, Two Systems" system. Political freedoms in Hong Kong have worsened considerably since the NSL's passage, with many civil society organizations closing and well-known activists jailed or exiled.

The party is under several pressures pushing it toward disbandment. Apart from direct political pressure from Chinese officials, legal and financial difficulties the NSL has created for opposition groups have made it more and more challenging for them to operate properly. Public opinion has also changed; Hong Kong people are increasingly preferring stability and economic progress over political strife, which has lessened support for pro-democracy groups. Allegations of dependence on anti-China foreign funding have also weakened the party's standing even more.

The Democratic Party's disbandment has major consequences for U.S.-China relations given Hong Kong’s role as a flashpoint in their geopolitical conflict. Washington sees these events as breaches of the Sino-British Joint Declaration and a challenge to the rules-based world order. The Hong Kong issue aggravates current conflicts over Taiwan, Xinjiang, and Tibet, therefore complicating bilateral talks.

The Democratic Party's disbandment increases distrust in China's international obligations for the United States. American diplomats have voiced worry that this action shows Beijing's intolerance of dissent and compromises Hong Kong's worldwide standing. In reaction, Washington can think about diplomatic actions or further penalties. Beijing, on the other hand, dismisses international criticism as meddling in its internal matters and presents its actions as required for national security and stability.

Moving Forward

The possible demise of the Democratic Party signals the end of structured pro-democracy resistance in Hong Kong. Similar pressures have caused other pro-democracy organizations, including the Civic Party, to disband, creating a political vacuum in what was formerly a dynamic democratic scene. Hong Kong's political scene is likely to be more homogeneous without opposition parties, emphasizing stability and conformity with Beijing's priorities. Once marked by some plurality despite constraints, the city's governing system is changing to more closely fit that of mainland China.

Hong Kong's diminishing autonomy might also have notable financial effects. The shifting political scene can discourage Western companies, hence impacting Hong Kong's function as a worldwide financial centre. U.S. lawmakers could react with harsher trade policies or sanctions aimed at Chinese companies participating in Hong Kong freedom suppression. Hong Kong's evolution acts as a warning for other Asian countries as they negotiate their own ties with China and the United States. Hong Kong's political crackdown's repercussions could affect regional dynamics, particularly in Southeast Asia, where nations are more and more trapped between rival spheres of influence.

The Democratic Party's impending disbandment is a key part of Beijing's attempts to remake Hong Kong's political scene to fit more closely with its idea of national unity and sovereignty. Hong Kong's future seems more and more in line with mainland China's government model as one of the last remnants of structured political opposition gets ready to leave the stage, so signifying a clear departure from the democratic hopes that had characterized the city's distinct identity.

The collapse of Hong Kong's pro-democracy movement calls into doubt the future of the "One Country, Two Systems" paradigm and whether the pledges made during the 1997 handover can be preserved in any significant way. Its history serves as a reminder of Hong Kong's complicated path and uncertain future in the shadow of an ever more forceful China as the Democratic Party gets ready for what might be its last chapter.

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