Table Stakes - August 3rd

Good morning everyone,

I’m Atlas, and welcome to Table Stakes!

Here’s a look at today’s topics:

• Lula Launches Bid For Fourth Presidential Term In Brazil

• Cueta Quells Chaos From Migrants Fleeing From Morocco

• U.S. Senators Reach Short Term Funding Deal To Avert Shutdown

Lula Launches Bid For Fourth Presidential Term In Brazil

_{By: Atlas}

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva said Saturday he will run for a fourth term in October, telling a Workers' Party convention in Brasilia that he intends to win and that the country "cannot go backwards."

"I am ready. I have the energy of a 30-year-old man and I am in love with Brazil," the 80-year-old said. "I will be a candidate for president of the republic to win."

The announcement ended months of speculation over whether Lula would seek reelection. He governed from 2003 to 2010, returned to office in 2023 after beating then-President Jair Bolsonaro, and would be 85 at the close of a fourth term in 2031. He has led every major poll for months.

Lula devoted much of his speech to Brazil's standoff with the United States. President Donald Trump imposed 50% tariffs on many Brazilian goods last year over the prosecution of Bolsonaro, and the Treasury Department sanctioned Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes. "Brazil is not for sale, Brazil is not negotiable, and our sovereignty is not up for discussion," Lula said. "The gringos cannot rule Brazil. Only Brazilians can."

First Ballot Without Bolsonaro Since 2018

The October 4 vote will be the first presidential election since 2018 without Bolsonaro on the ballot. The former president is serving a 27-year sentence for plotting a coup to overturn his 2022 defeat and is barred from office until 2030.

From prison, Bolsonaro endorsed his eldest son, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, as his successor. The Liberal Party formally nominated Flavio last month after Sao Paulo Governor Tarcisio de Freitas, long viewed as the right's strongest option, chose to seek reelection instead. Goias Governor Ronaldo Caiado, Minas Gerais Governor Romeu Zema, and former minister Ciro Gomes are also in the race or preparing bids.

Polls show Lula ahead of Flavio Bolsonaro by around 10 percentage points in a first round, with a tighter margin in a runoff. About a third of voters say they would never vote for Lula. Flavio's rejection numbers run nearly as high.

Flavio has said he would pardon his father if elected. Lula's campaign is expected to hammer that pledge, along with the Bolsonaro family's lobbying in Washington that preceded the tariffs.

Prices and Crime Weigh on the Incumbent

Lula's approval sagged for much of last year before recovering. Unemployment sits near historic lows, a strong harvest helped cool inflation, and his flagship income tax exemption for Brazilians earning up to 5,000 reais a month took effect in January after clearing Congress.

"We have delivered more than we promised," he said Saturday. "But I know that life is still hard for many people. That is why I want four more years: to finish the job."

Food prices remain a running complaint, and crime has become the campaign's hardest issue for the left. Surveys consistently place public security among voters' top concerns. A police operation against the Comando Vermelho gang in Rio de Janeiro last October left more than 120 people dead and pushed the debate to the center of national politics. The government's response, a constitutional amendment restructuring federal-state security cooperation, is stalled in Congress.

Lula also addressed his age directly. "Age is not measured by documents," he said. "It is measured by the will to fight."

The Trump Factor

The tariff fight has cut in Lula's favor. His poll numbers rose after Trump tied the levies to Bolsonaro's prosecution, a linkage that many Brazilians, including some conservatives, read as interference in the country's courts. Negotiations have since produced partial relief on beef, coffee, and other products, but most of the tariffs remain.

Lula has built his early campaign message around the dispute, repeating the phrase "sovereignty is not negotiable" at rallies and in speeches for months. On Saturday he closed with a reference to the January 8, 2023, storming of government buildings in Brasilia by Bolsonaro supporters. "Never again a coup in this country," he said. "Democracy won, and democracy will win again."

The convention approved his candidacy alongside Vice President Geraldo Alckmin, the centrist former Sao Paulo governor who joined the ticket in 2022 and stays on as running mate. The campaign formally opens in August. The first round is set for October 4, with a likely runoff October 25.

Lula, a former metalworker from the country's northeast, has won three presidential elections and spent 580 days in prison on corruption convictions that were later annulled, clearing the way for his 2022 comeback. His party is betting a fourth is within reach; the rejection numbers, the price of food, and the security debate will decide whether the bet pays off.

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