Good evening everyone,

I’m Daniel, and welcome to Table Stakes!

Here’s a look at today’s topics:

• The South Korean President has been impeached following a martial law enactment

• Israel has closed its embassy in Ireland after “anti-Israeli” policies have come into play

• Rwanda-DRC peace plans are nixed after disagreement on rebel group problem

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South Korean President Impeached

By: Daniel Murrah

After a failed martial law declaration and an ensuing political crisis, the South Korean parliament has officially voted to impeach President Yoon Suk Yeol. The disgraced leader now faces not only universal international backlash, but also potential arrest in his own country. The possible charges include abuse of power and insurrection, with punishments ranging from massive fines to life imprisonment.

What Was He Thinking?

Yoon declared martial law on December 3rd due to a crisis in his administration and party. Before the declaration, his approval rating sat at just 25% and an opposition-controlled parliament made it virtually impossible for him to push his agenda. During his tenure, 22 impeachment motions were filed against members of his administration and the parliament continued to strike down his budget proposals.

Due to this deadlock and the inevitable consequences for the incumbent party, Yoon threw a hail mary and attempted to unite the country against the opposition party by declaring a state of emergency, claiming North Korean interference in the opposition party’s decisions. Despite his attempts to block access to the parliamentary building using military personnel, the martial law declaration was reversed after mere hours. Now, his approval rating sits at 11%, the second-lowest in South Korean history.

Now What?

The impacts on Yoon’s career and the future of the People Power Party are undeniably bleak. But the situation will have more wide-reaching consequences for a Republic that was a beacon of democracy in a region that desperately needed one.

After the declaration, U.S. Deputy Secretary Kurt Campbell denounced Yoon's move as "illegitimate" and "badly misjudged." Even worse, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin canceled his planned trip to Seoul, which was supposed to see crucial talks regarding alliance-building and North Korean nuclear deterrence. The two countries also postponed a session of the Nuclear Consultative Group, which is the alliance’s main venue for nuclear deterrence discussions.

The cancellation of these meetings would be significant regardless of the timing, but recent events make the situation even more impactful. U.S.-ROK cooperation is arguably more crucial now than at any time since the Korean War. All year, North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un has been posturing the Korean People’s Army (KPA) in and around the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) by stationing artillery (Korean War-era and modern) and blowing up roads originally built as a symbol of unity. A hamper on US-ROK cooperation could not come at a worse time for global stability.

No one really knows what happens moving forward. While Yoon fears for his freedom, his country will fear for its security and its seat at the international table. What began as a desperate move to save his political career has become a potential disaster for the future of South Korea.

Israel Closes Dublin Embassy

By: Daniel Murrah

Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar announced on Sunday the closure of the Israeli embassy in Dublin, Ireland over claims of "extreme anti-Israel policies." The announcement is just one symptom of the highly strained Israeli-Irish relationship which has been deteriorating since Israel’s response to the October 7th attacks.

The Breaking Point

Ireland has consistently expressed deep disapproval of Israel’s operations in the Middle East. Irish Deputy Prime Minister Micheal Martin criticized what he described as "the collective punishment of the Palestinian people in Gaza.”

In May, Ireland joined the growing list of nations that recognize an independent Palestinian state. The republic also supported South Africa’s ICJ case to expand the body’s definition of genocide and convict Israel of genocide. In November, Ireland's Prime Minister Simon Harris announced that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would be arrested if he tried to enter the Republic of Ireland.

Saar has since stated that Ireland has “crossed every red line” when it comes to the nation’s relationship with Israel.

Moving Forward

The international fallout from the Gaza situation is a double-edged sword. Ultimately, for nations that believe that the conduct of another nation is humanitarianly unacceptable, retributive measures are important and necessary. But they also have the potential to make the situation worse.

One instance of this could be the ICJ arrest warrant. Now that Netanyahu can’t travel to most European countries without fearing arrest, the international community has substantially less of a say in the matter. Due to Palestine not being recognized as a state by the UN and local instability preventing any Arab states from having a real voice in international discussions, these European countries are the most important advocates for countries in the Middle East that they believe are being mistreated. It now seems impossible that Netanyahu would ever meet with these leaders or attend summits, making the potential for peace even more bleak.

Israel’s embassy closure may be similarly counterproductive. While serving a symbolic and diplomatic function, embassies primarily benefit the diasporas they represent. For example, while the US embassy in France serves as a hub for Washington-Paris diplomacy, they are also a critical resource for Americans living in France. Due to the closure, Israeli nationals living in Ireland will now have less access to these resources and may even experience more antisemitism.

While the international community hopefully awaits a ceasefire in Gaza, the diplomatic fallout from the crisis has already been irreversible. The Western world continues to fracture due to disagreements regarding the Middle Eastern conflict and that doesn’t look like it’s going to change any time soon.

Rwanda-DRC Peace Talks Cancelled

By: Daniel Murrah

In a surprising and significant setback, scheduled peace talks between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo have been canceled. The talks, which had the potential to end a years-long crisis in the eastern Congo, were terminated due to a failure to agree on crucial terms regarding the local M23 rebel group.

The Situation

Since 2021, M23 rebels have controlled towns and villages in the eastern Congo. During this time the group has recruited child soldiers to Congolese forces, subjected communities to executions and sexual abuse, and forced the displacement of over 520,000 people. Despite this, Rwandan forces have aided M23 in the form of soldiers, weapons, and political assistance. Additionally, a July report from the UN Security Council found that Rwanda has “de facto control and direction over M23 operations.”

But before engaging in peace talks, Rwanda demanded that the DRC negotiate with M23 directly. Due to the ongoing conflict and major human rights abuses, the DRC refused. As a result, Rwanda closed the discussion.

It is impossible to know whether or not the peace talks would have been ultimately successful. In July, the parties agreed to a ceasefire. Fighting resumed after less than a month.

But peace talks are certainly better than no peace talks. That begs the question: where do we go from here?

The answer is not very uplifting. Due to recent territorial gains by M23 and continued involvement from Rwandan forces, the Congolese military is losing. Since the beginning of October M23 has gained significant ground including several towns in the North Kivu province. M23 have also disrupted key transportation routes, isolating the provincial capitol Goma.

What Now?

This could spell disaster for an already bleak Congolese situation. Goma is home to over 2 million people and is a vital hub for the nation’s economy. Additionally, Goma is the DRC’s main beacon of political authority in the eastern Congo. If Goma falls, the situation becomes far more concerning.

In 2012, exactly that happened. M23 held the city for a total of 10 days before being forced to give it up due to international pressure. Specifically, the UN ordered sweeping sanctions against Rwanda and Uganda, the two nations providing most of M23’s support. But now, Uganda’s involvement is clouded. Some actors have accused Uganda of continuing support for M23 but Uganda has called these accusations “laughable.” As a result, it may be more difficult for the international community to find leverage.

Additionally, MONUSCO, the local UN peacekeeping force, officially withdrew from North Kivu in June, at the request of the Congolese government. This relaxing of deterrence forces combined with the secrecy surrounding M23’s support system may be the perfect opportunity for the rebel group.

Needless to say, the situation in the DRC does not suggest stability for anyone involved. The international community will certainly be keeping a close eye on the conflict, likely trying to find ways to leverage their power against a non-state militia group (a notoriously difficult task). Goma may be the nation’s last line of defense against a stronger-than-ever M23.

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