Table Stakes - December 29th

Good morning everyone,

I’m Atlas, and welcome to Table Stakes!

Here’s a look at today’s topics:

• China Conducts Drills Around Taiwan To Deter ‘External’ Forces

• Guinea Holds First Election Since 2021 Coup

• Peace ‘Closer Than Ever’ Says Trump Regarding Russia-U

China Conducts Drills Around Taiwan To Deter ‘External’ Forces

_{By: Atlas}

China's military began large-scale exercises around Taiwan on Monday, deploying army, naval, air force and rocket force units in what Beijing called a "stern warning" against Taiwanese independence movements and foreign powers that might intervene on the island's behalf. The drills mark the first time China has publicly stated that exercises around Taiwan are aimed at deterring outside military intervention.

The maneuvers, code-named "Justice Mission 2025," will include live-fire drills on Tuesday across five zones surrounding the self-governed island, according to Senior Colonel Shi Yi, spokesman for the People's Liberation Army's Eastern Theater Command.

"This serves as a serious warning to 'Taiwan Independence' separatist forces and external interference forces, and it is a legitimate and necessary action to safeguard China's sovereignty and national unity," Shi said in a statement released on WeChat.

The exercises come amid heightened tensions following an $11.1 billion U.S. arms sale to Taiwan earlier this month and comments by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggesting that Tokyo could militarily respond if China were to attack the island.

Scope of the exercises

The Eastern Theater Command said the drills would take place in the Taiwan Strait and areas to the north, southwest, southeast and east of Taiwan's main island. A separate statement included a map showing five large zones where sea and airspace restrictions would be in effect for 10 hours on Tuesday, from 8 a.m. to 6 p.m. local time.

"For the sake of safety, any irrelevant vessel or aircraft is advised not to enter the aforementioned waters and airspace," the military said.

Shi said the activities would focus on "sea-air combat readiness patrol, joint seizure of comprehensive superiority, blockade on key ports and areas, as well as all-dimensional deterrence outside the island chain."

Chinese vessels and aircraft will approach Taiwan "in close proximity from different directions," Shi said, with troops from multiple services engaging in "joint assaults to test their joint operations capabilities."

Ahead of the live-fire exercises, the Eastern Theater Command said it had deployed fighters, bombers and drones "in coordination with long-range rocket fires" to conduct drills in the middle areas of the Taiwan Strait, "focusing on striking mobile ground targets." The drills were intended to test the troops' ability to deliver "precision strikes on key targets."

The Chinese military also released a poster titled "Shields of Justice: Smashing Illusions," featuring two golden shields emblazoned with the PLA insignia and the Great Wall of China, along with three military aircraft and two ships.

What prompted the drills

The exercises mark China's sixth major round of war games around Taiwan since 2022, when then-U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited the island. They follow a series of developments that have angered Beijing.

Earlier this month, the United States announced approval of an $11.1 billion arms package for Taiwan, the largest-ever American weapons sale to the island. China's defense ministry protested the announcement and warned the military would "take forceful measures" in response. Last week, Beijing unveiled largely symbolic sanctions against 20 U.S. defense companies and 10 executives.

The drills also come after Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said on November 7 that the Self-Defense Forces could be deployed under certain "worst-case" scenarios involving Taiwan. Takaichi said a Chinese naval blockade of the island would constitute a "survival-threatening situation" for Japan, allowing it to invoke the right to collective self-defense.

China reacted with fury to her remarks, demanding that they be retracted, summoning Tokyo's ambassador and warning its citizens against traveling to Japan. Takaichi's administration has refused to back down, saying the remarks do not represent a shift in policy for Tokyo.

While the PLA has practiced port blockades around Taiwan during previous exercises, this marks the first time it has publicly stated that drills around the island are aimed at deterring foreign military intervention. The Japan Times noted that the Chinese military did not mention Japan by name in its Monday statement.

Taiwan's response

Taiwan's Presidential Office spokeswoman Karen Kuo condemned China's actions in a statement Tuesday.

"In response to the Chinese authorities' disregard for international norms and the use of military intimidation to threaten neighboring countries, Taiwan expresses its strong condemnation," Kuo said.

Taiwanese President William Lai Ching-te urged China "not to misjudge the situation and become a troublemaker in the region."

Taiwan's Defense Ministry said it had detected three Chinese military aircraft and seven naval vessels operating around the island between Saturday and Sunday, before the exercises were announced. All three aircraft crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait and entered Taiwan's southwestern air defense identification zone.

The ministry said it had established a rapid response center and deployed "appropriate forces." It vowed to "protect democracy, freedom, sovereignty and safety" on the island.

"A response centre has been established, and appropriate forces have been deployed," the Taiwanese military said, adding that its armed forces "have carried out a rapid response exercise."

Taiwan's defense ministry called the drills further confirmation of China's "nature as an aggressor, making it the greatest destroyer of peace."

Background on the Taiwan issue

China and Taiwan have been governed separately since 1949, when a civil war brought the Communist Party to power in Beijing. Defeated Nationalist Party forces fled to Taiwan, which has operated since then with its own government. Beijing claims the island as sovereign territory and has long vowed to bring it under its control, by force if necessary.

Most countries, including the United States and Japan, do not formally recognize Taiwan as an independent state. Washington, however, opposes any attempt to take the island by force and is committed to supplying it with weapons for self-defense.

Beijing has stepped up military intimidation of Taiwan since President Lai took office in May 2024. China regularly sends military aircraft and warships near and around the island and has conducted a number of large-scale exercises in recent years.

The Chinese military last held large-scale drills around Taiwan in April, when it conducted two-day "Strait Thunder-2025A" exercises that included "long-range live-fire drills" and simulated strikes on key ports and energy facilities. The United States called those exercises "intimidation tactics," while Britain warned they were "risking dangerous escalation."

In an interview aired Sunday, Lai told Taiwanese broadcaster Sanli E-Television that the island must continue to raise the cost of aggression and strengthen its indigenous defense capabilities to deter China.

"If China sets 2027 as the year to be ready for an invasion of Taiwan, then we have only one choice: to keep raising the difficulty so that China can never meet that standard," Lai said. "Taiwan will naturally remain safe."

Subscribe to Table Stakes to read the rest.