Good morning everyone,

I’m Daniel, and welcome to Table Stakes!

Here’s a look at today’s topics:

• Open Questions For The Ukrainian Conflict Under A 2nd Trump Presidency

• The US Has Sanctioned The Billionaire Who Founded Georgia’s Ruling Political Party

• Senegal Is Closing All Foreign Military Bases

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Ukraine Gets A Double Take

_{By: Daniel Murrah, Staff Writer for Atlas}

With Trump set to return to the White House in less than a month, key questions have been raised regarding the future of US policy toward the Russo-Ukrainian war. Trump has made unique promises, but change is an open question for now.

 Ukraine Aid 

Trump's previous statements about Ukraine aid have been consistent and clear - he believes the U.S. is spending far too many tax dollars on a war that shouldn’t have begun in the first place. During campaign speeches and interviews, he's repeatedly questioned the scale of American support, suggesting that European nations should bear more of the financial burden. The 47th President to be openly called for NATO countries to realign their commitment to the 2% of the GDP that’s needed for protection.

Since 2022, U.S. military and financial aid has been instrumental for Ukraine's defensive hopes. Any reduction or lack of stated support would force Ukraine to radically rethink how it hopes to achieve an end to the war, as no other country seems positioned to fill in the massive gap that would be caused by US aid reduction ($86.7 billion dollars disbursed so far).

 The NATO Question

Trump's skepticism toward NATO isn't new, and it matters tremendously for Ukraine. His previous presidency saw tense relations with NATO allies over defense spending commitments. A return to this stance would inevitably complicate Ukraine's relationship with the alliance at the precise time that backing would be needed.

While NATO support has been crucial for Ukraine, Trump's criticism of European defense spending isn't entirely without merit - many NATO members haven't met their agreed-upon defense spending targets.

This could mean increased European military aid to compensate for reduced U.S. support, or it might force European leaders to push for different diplomatic solutions. Either way, the dynamics of Western support for Ukraine would shift dramatically.

 Looking Ahead 

The potential impact of Trump's return to power on Ukraine will usher in a new era to the conflict. With all the changes that the war has seen (Russian and Ukrainian exchanges in territory, the introduction of North Korean troops, US missiles being allowed to strike Russian soil, among others), the entire war has taken place under the Biden administration.

What's clear is that Trump's inauguration would mark the departure of the status quo in U.S.-Ukraine relations. Whether this leads to a swift resolution of the conflict, as Trump claims, or to a more Euro-centric affair, prolonged conflict or peace can only be conjectured for now.

Not A Dream

_{By: Daniel Murrah, Staff Writer for Atlas}

The United has announced sanctions against Bidzina Ivanishvili, the founder of the Dream Party, which also happens to be Georgia’s ruling political party. Like many political developments in former Soviet states, this situation is a massively educational case study in the tug of war between Western alignment and Russian influence.

 Power and Democracy

Ivanishvili, who founded Georgia's ruling Georgian Dream party and previously served as prime minister, has been a dominant force in Georgian politics for over a decade. The U.S. State Department's decision to sanction him stems from allegations of undermining Georgia's democratic institutions and enabling human rights abuses.

The situation mirrors many patterns we've seen in Eastern European politics, where powerful figures often straddle the fence between Western and Russian interests. Under Ivanishvili's influence, Georgia has shown concerning signs of democratic backslide, including the suppression of protests and restrictions on media freedom.

The Russian Connection

The situation validates growing Western concerns about Georgia's drift toward Russian influence. Much like other former Soviet states, Georgia finds itself caught between competing spheres of influence. The U.S. Treasury Department specifically cited Ivanishvili's role in derailing Georgia's Euro-Atlantic aspirations and benefiting Russian interests in the region.

This isn't just about one individual's actions - it's about Georgia's broader geopolitical orientation. Recent decisions by the Georgian Dream party to pause EU accession efforts have sparked widespread protests, suggesting a significant divide between the government's direction and popular aspirations for Western integration.

Implications and Future

The sanctions' immediate effects include freezing Ivanishvili's U.S. assets and restricting travel for him and his family members. However, the broader implications extend far beyond individual penalties. The timing and nature of these sanctions send a clear message about U.S. expectations for democratic governance in the region.

Like many political confrontations in this part of the world, this situation tests how much each side is willing to sacrifice. For Ivanishvili and the Georgian Dream party, it means choosing between maintaining their current course and potentially facing increased international isolation, or reconsidering their approach to democratic institutions and Western alignment.

Foreign Military Bases Now Gone in Senegal

_{By: Daniel Murrah, Staff Writer for Atlas}

In a notable shift from conventional wisdom for state protection, Senegal has announced the closure of all foreign military bases within its borders. Let’s dive into what can be learned about Afro-Western relations, as well as geopolitical implications.

Breaking Historical Ties

The decision, announced by Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko and backed by President Bassirou Diomaye Faye, primarily affects French military presence in the country. France, which maintains approximately 350 troops in Senegal, has already seen similar withdrawals from other former colonies in the region, including Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, and Chad.

President Faye's statement about Senegal being "an independent country" that cannot "accommodate the presence of foreign military bases" echoes similar sentiments we've heard across Africa in recent years. Overall, African nations are increasingly choosing paths that prioritize their own interests over historical alliances.

Regional Implications

The timing of this decision isn't random. It follows a pattern of African nations reassessing their relationships with former colonial powers, particularly France.

The move changes the chess board for regional security. West Africa has relied on French military support for counterterrorism operations, and this withdrawal could reshape how the region approaches security challenges. And while French soldiers withdraw, terrorist and insurgent groups aren’t going anywhere. The philosophy change that comes with no more foreign interference will necessarily have to be met with an even greater amount of resources if Senegal has any chance of deterring the persistent threat of radical groups encroaching on its sovereignty.

Looking Forward

The consequences of this decision extend far beyond Senegal's borders. Senegal’s decision could ultimately reshape France's role in West Africa.

While no specific timeline has been provided for the withdrawal, the message is clear: Senegal is charting its own course. Like many nations breaking from historical patterns, they're willing to sacrifice certain security guarantees for greater autonomy. This mirrors the broader trend of nations reevaluating their alignments in an increasingly multipolar world.

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