Table Stakes - December 8th

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I’m Atlas, and welcome to Table Stakes!

Here’s a look at today’s topics:

• Japanese-Chinese Relations Edge Out Disaster After Radar Locks On Japanese F-15 Jets

• Coup Thwarted In Benin Per Beninese State Officials

• Over 600 Drones Launched By Russia In Latest Attack On Ukraine

Japanese-Chinese Relations Edge Out Disaster After Radar Locks On Japanese F-15 Jets

_{By: Atlas}

Chinese military aircraft locked their fire-control radar on Japanese fighter jets on two separate occasions Saturday over international waters near Okinawa, marking the first such incident between the two nations' air forces and the most serious military confrontation between Tokyo and Beijing in years.

Japan's Defense Ministry said J-15 fighter jets launched from the Chinese aircraft carrier Liaoning directed their radar at Air Self-Defense Force F-15 fighters southeast of Okinawa's main island. The first incident lasted approximately three minutes in the late afternoon. The second lasted roughly 30 minutes in the evening.

Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi called the actions "dangerous acts" that were "extremely regrettable" and said Japan had lodged a formal protest with Beijing.

"This radar-locking constitutes a dangerous act exceeding the scope necessary for safe aircraft operations," Koizumi said during a news conference early Sunday. "We have lodged a strong protest with the Chinese side and demanded strict measures to prevent a recurrence."

No personnel were injured and no aircraft were damaged in either incident, according to Japan's Defense Ministry. There was no breach of Japanese airspace.

What radar lock means

Fire-control radar illumination is not a routine action. Unlike general surveillance radar, it involves precise, focused tracking that prepares a weapon system for potential engagement. When directed at another aircraft, it is widely interpreted as a high-intensity warning or pre-combat signal.

Fighter jets use their radar for two primary purposes: search and rescue operations, or fire control ahead of a missile launch. Japan's Defense Ministry determined that the use in Saturday's incidents was not intended for search purposes because the Japanese aircraft had been intermittently targeted.

The action is considered threatening because it signals a potential attack and may force the targeted aircraft to take evasive maneuvers. Japan did not disclose whether the Chinese aircraft achieved a full weapons lock or how Japanese pilots responded.

This marks the first time Japan has publicly disclosed a fire-control radar lock-on incident by Chinese military aircraft against Self-Defense Force aircraft. A Chinese navy warship directed its fire-control radar at a Maritime Self-Defense Force destroyer and helicopter in two separate incidents in early 2013, according to the Japan Times.

Contrasting accounts from Tokyo and Beijing

Japanese officials said their F-15 fighters had been scrambled to monitor Chinese aircraft conducting takeoff and landing exercises from the Liaoning in the Pacific. The Japanese aircraft were pursuing the Chinese jets at a safe distance and did not take actions that could be interpreted as provocation when the radar lock occurred, Kyodo News reported, citing defense officials.

China offered a sharply different account.

Senior Colonel Wang Xuemeng, spokesman for the Chinese navy, said in a statement Sunday that the Liaoning carrier battle group had been conducting "regular flight training in a designated sea and airspace" that had been previously announced.

"During the exercise, aircraft from the Japan Self-Defense Forces repeatedly approached the Chinese naval training airspace and maritime area to harass the drills, severely disrupting China's normal training activities and posing a serious threat to flight safety," Wang said.

He called Japan's characterization of the incident erroneous. "We solemnly demand that the Japanese side immediately stop slandering and smearing and strictly restrain its frontline actions," Wang said. "The Chinese Navy will take necessary measures in accordance with the law to resolutely safeguard its own security and legitimate rights and interests."

The Liaoning passed between Okinawa and Miyakojima Island on Saturday along with three destroyers, including the Type 055 destroyer Nanchang and Type 052D destroyers Xining and Kaifeng, before proceeding into the Pacific Ocean.

Tensions over Taiwan remarks

The aerial confrontation comes against a backdrop of deteriorating relations between Japan and China that began last month following remarks by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.

In early November, Takaichi told Japan's parliament that the Self-Defense Forces could be deployed under certain "worst-case scenarios," such as a Chinese naval blockade of Taiwan, which would constitute a "survival-threatening situation" for Japan. She became the first Japanese prime minister to lay out specifics in parliament about how Tokyo might respond to a Taiwan emergency.

Beijing reacted furiously. China views Taiwan as part of its territory and has refused to rule out the use of force to bring the self-governing island under its control. Chinese officials have demanded Takaichi retract her remarks and have implemented measures curbing trade, cultural exchanges and tourism as apparent retaliation.

Senior Colonel Jiang Bin, spokesman for China's defense ministry, warned last month: "Should the Japanese side dare to cross the red line and invite troubles to itself, it is destined to pay a heavy price."

Takaichi on Sunday called the radar lock-in "extremely disappointing."

"We will act calmly and resolutely," she said, vowing to continue surveillance operations around Japanese waters and airspace while closely monitoring Chinese military activity.

Japan has been making progress on plans to deploy medium-range surface-to-air missiles at Yonaguni Island, located approximately 110 kilometers east of Taiwan.

Regional response and U.S. silence

Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles, who was in Tokyo for previously scheduled talks with Koizumi when the incident became public, expressed concern about China's actions.

"We are deeply concerned by the actions of China in the last 24 hours," Marles said at a joint press conference Sunday. "We expect those interactions to be safe and professional."

Marles said Australia "will continue to stand with Japan" in upholding the rules-based order in the region. The two ministers agreed to form a comprehensive "framework for strategic defense coordination" and discuss further details.

U.S. Ambassador to Japan George Glass has publicly expressed support for Japan in several social media posts since the diplomatic dispute with China began last month. But President Donald Trump and other senior U.S. officials have remained silent on Takaichi's remarks about Taiwan, according to Reuters.

Trump telephoned Takaichi last month urging her not to escalate the dispute, people with knowledge of the matter told Reuters. That call came after Trump spoke with Chinese President Xi Jinping, who told Trump that Taiwan's return to China was central to Beijing's vision for world order, according to China's official Xinhua news agency.

The Trump administration said in its new national security strategy released Friday that it aims to prevent conflict with China over Taiwan and the South China Sea by building up military power among the United States and its allies. Trump plans to visit Beijing next year for trade talks.

Japan hosts the largest overseas concentration of American military power, including warships, aircraft and thousands of U.S. Marines stationed in Okinawa.

Broader military activity in the region

The radar lock incident occurred amid heightened Chinese military activity across East Asian waters.

On Thursday, China had more than 100 naval and coast guard vessels deployed across the region at one point, Reuters reported, citing intelligence sources. Taiwan's government described that buildup as posing a threat to the Indo-Pacific region.

Separately on Saturday, the Philippine coast guard said China fired three flares toward a fisheries bureau plane on patrol in the South China Sea. Chinese forces routinely fire flares to warn aircraft away from what Beijing considers its airspace over the disputed waters.

Taiwan's intelligence chief said last week that Chinese warplanes have conducted "simulated attacks" on foreign vessels transiting the Taiwan Strait. Eight countries, including the United States, Japan, Australia and France, have sent naval warships through the narrow waterway this year, National Security Bureau director-general Tsai Ming-yen told lawmakers.

In June, Chinese J-15 fighters conducted what Japan described as "unusually close" intercepts of a Japanese surveillance aircraft, coming within 50 meters of the plane in what Tokyo called "unprofessional" maneuvers. Beijing blamed that encounter on "harassment by Japanese vessels and aircraft."

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