Good morning everyone,

I'm Daniel, and welcome to Table Stakes. Let’s dive in to today's topics:

• The US is tasked with preventing an ISIS resurgence in a post-Assad power vacuum.

• Burkina Faso's new Prime Minister may complicate Afro-Western relations.

• British Prime Minister Kier Starmer is on a unique diplomatic tour through three key Middle Eastern states.

Another Middle East Power Vacuum

By: Daniel Murrah

It's been a while since we've seen a big power vacuum open up in the Middle East. It finally happened this weekend. The Assad dynasty, which had ruled Syria for over half a century, crumbled as rebel forces led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) captured Damascus. Bashar al-Assad's flee to Moscow marked the end of a brutal regime, leaving behind a volatile situation ripe for potential terrorist exploitation.

In this moment of uncertainty, the United States has emerged as the primary candidate equipped to prevent the resurgence of ISIS and maintain regional stability. The challenge is monumental: stabilizing a country in shambles while ensuring that extremist elements do not capitalize on the best opportunity since the civil war froze early last year.

The Immediate Response

The U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) wasted no time. Within hours of Assad's fall, American military assets launched a comprehensive counterterrorism operation. Over 75 precision airstrikes targeted ISIS camps, leadership infrastructure, and operational centers across central Syria.

The aerial campaign did not hold back. B-52 bombers, F-15E Strike Eagles, and A-10 Thunderbolt IIs deployed approximately 140 munitions with surgical accuracy. Notably, these strikes achieved their objectives without reported civilian casualties—a rare achievement in a region traumatized by decades of conflict and disregard for the lives of non-combatants.

Remaining Presence

Approximately 900 U.S. troops remain strategically positioned in eastern Syria, working closely with the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Their mission extends beyond immediate military action, focusing on securing detention facilities housing ISIS fighters and maintaining operational readiness against emerging threats.

This continued military presence is crucial. It's not a full-scale intervention, but a targeted strategy of containment and prevention. By maintaining a limited but potent footprint, the United States maintains deterrence without risking a large-scale ground deployment.

Multinational Diplomacy

The Biden administration's response goes beyond military action. Diplomatic efforts are equally crucial in preventing ISIS's resurgence. Senior U.S. officials are engaging with regional allies—Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq, and Israel—to coordinate responses and mitigate potential security risks.

The diplomatic strategy involves carefully understanding Syria's complex insurgent situation. While groups like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) have historically been designated as terrorist organizations, the current situation requires deeper consideration. HTS now portrays itself as a nationalist organization seeking governance, presenting challenges for U.S. authority.

Is This Goodbye?

By: Daniel Murrah

Burkina Faso's President Captain Ibrahim Traoré's decision came without public explanation, dissolving the previous government and installing Rimtalba Jean Emmanuel Ouedraogo as the new Prime Minister—a move that speaks to the raw political power of Burkina Faso's military regime.

Ouedraogo is no stranger to government service. His resume includes years as a state television editor-in-chief and government spokesperson. More importantly, his close relationship with Traoré suggests this is no random appointment, but a calculated political decision.

The Insurgent Situation

Burkina Faso is in a bad place. Half the country remains outside government control, with terrorist groups affiliated with al-Qaida and ISIS carving deep wounds into the national landscape. Over 2 million people have been displaced—a human catastrophe that overshadows any positives one could think of.

The military junta that took power in 2022 has staked its entire legitimacy on solving this security crisis. Ouedraogo's appointment is a continuation of this approach. His selection reflects a government desperate to demonstrate control and bring order back to a country that only knows disorder.

Foreign Policy Shifts

Burkina Faso is turning away from its traditional allies. France, the former colonial power, has been pushed aside entirely. The Economic Community of West African States (ECoWAS) finds itself on the chopping block as well. Instead, the country looks east—toward Russia and a network of coup-led regimes that share a distrust of Western influence.

This is more than a diplomatic shift. It represents a fundamental reimagining of Burkina Faso's place in the world. Military cooperation with Russia, with potential support from groups like Wagner, shows how desperate the nation is to make changes. To be fair, the current situation definitely isn't working. But it's unclear how a relationship with Russia is supposed to induce peace.

The extended transition period—five years instead of the initially promised eighteen months—shows just how dramatic this shift will be. Ouedraogo isn't just looking for a tune-up. He wants a whole new car.

As 2024 draws to a close, Burkina Faso is at a crossroads. Ouedraogo's leadership will determine whether this is a path to stability or a road to further chaos. The world will watch, but more importantly, local civilians and insurgents alike will experience it all.

Starmer's Middle-Eastern Tour

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is on a critical diplomatic tour through the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Cyprus part of a strategy to reshape the United Kingdom's economic and strategic relationships in the Middle East. His first stop in the UAE positioned Britain at the center of high-stakes international negotiations, with discussions centered on trade, defense, and technological collaboration.

In Abu Dhabi, Starmer's meeting with President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan aimed to facilitate bilateral advancement. The talks were wide-reaching, exploring domains such as artificial intelligence and research and development. It's clear that Britain recognizes the UAE as a high-potential but untapped actor in technological development.

The Saudi Arabian leg of the tour was similarly forward-thinking. Starmer's discussion with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman focused intently on strengthening economic ties and advancing negotiations for a comprehensive free trade agreement with the Gulf Cooperation Council.

Starmer's Strategy

Starmer's mission is not just an economic one. He wants to position Britain as a major beneficiary of a developing Middle East. By directly engaging with key regional leaders, the British government is poised to be an active participant in Middle Eastern strategic and relational conversations.

The tour's timing is also significant. As global power dynamics continue to shift, Britain seeks to reassert its diplomatic relevance and economic potential. The focus on the Gulf states is an attempt to make an investment that other countries aren't making, as the United States, for example, is currently focused on expanding its relationship with Indo-Pacific nations. Each stop on Starmer's tour is an attempt to open new pathways and bring Britain back to the top.

Finally, Cyprus

The diplomatic tour concludes in Cyprus, a place of considerable strategic importance. Starmer met with President Nikos Christodoulides and visited with British troops stationed on the island.

Cyprus is a fitting final stop, as it is the country with the most topics of conversation with Britain. The discussions will likely address regional security, bilateral relations, and the broader geopolitical challenges facing the Eastern Mediterranean.

Starmer's tour is more important than it seems at first glance. By engaging directly with relatively ignored regional leaders, Britain is differentiating itself from other Western nations. This mission is not just about trade—it's about establishing a new paradigm of international engagement.

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