Table Stakes - February 17th

Good morning everyone,

I’m Daniel, and welcome to Table Stakes!

Here’s a look at today’s topics:

• A New Dehli

• Hegseth: Ukraine Liberation and NATO Membership 'Unrealistic'

• US-Russian Prisoner Swap

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A New Dehli

_{By: Daniel Murrah, Staff Writer for Atlas}

The February 13, 2025 meeting between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and U.S. President Donald Trump was a crucial step in Washington's evolving ‘tripolar strategy.’ At its core, this approach envisions India as a crucial third pole in global geopolitics, alongside the United States and China. The summit delivered substantial outcomes that reinforced this strategic vision, particularly in defense cooperation and trade relations.

Perhaps the most important development announced after the meeting is the start of the U.S.-India COMPACT project (Catalyzing Opportunities for Military Partnership, Accelerated Commerce & Technology). Through a joint venture between General Electric and Indian companies, this framework creates new opportunities for military cooperation including domestic jet engine manufacturing. The United States has also indicated that it is ready to increase defense sales to India, including F-35 stealth fighter planes, greatly improving India's military capability.

Economically, Modi's audacious "Mission 500" plan is to quadruple bilateral trade with the U.S. to $500 billion by 2030. Supported by India's pledge to lower tariffs on large amounts of U.S. goods such as bourbon, motorcycles, and metals, this aim seems within grasp. In exchange, the United States has promised to improve market access for Indian agricultural goods. By fall 2025, both countries have promised to complete a bilateral trade agreement, therefore resolving long-standing trade conflicts and integrating supply chains.

The Indo-Pacific Chess Game

The meeting's emphasis on Indo-Pacific security reflects the region's vitality in the tripolar framework. Both leaders reaffirmed their commitment to a free, open, and peaceful Indo-Pacific, a clear response to China's growing regional influence. The focus on enhancing security cooperation via the Quad alliance—which consists of the United States, India, Japan, and Australia—showcases the strategic relevance of multilateral alliances in limiting Beijing's territorial ambitions.

Another essential element of the strategic realignment turned out to be energy cooperation. India's deal to boost imports of liquefied natural gas, U.S. crude oil, and petroleum products advances several strategic goals. Beyond lessening India's reliance on conventional energy sources, particularly Russia, these accords improve energy security and open fresh directions for economic cooperation. To try to stabilize world energy prices, the two countries also discussed combined investments in oil and gas infrastructure and increased strategic petroleum reserves.

The counterterrorism front also saw a significant breakthrough at the meeting with Trump's endorsement of the extradition of Tahawwur Hussain Rana, a Pakistani suspect in the 2008 Mumbai attacks, to India. This choice not only shows American support for India's security issues but also fortifies the more general strategic cooperation between the two countries.

Challenges and Future Trajectory

Despite the successes of the summit, a number of issues could hamper the efficacy of America's tripolar approach. India's dedication to strategic autonomy is still a major determinant as New Delhi keeps juggling ties with China (its primary commercial partner) and Russia (its main armaments supplier). Modi's fence-sitting shows India's desire to avoid being seen as part of an explicit anti-China coalition, which may restrict India's diplomatic flexibility, and worldwide trade ambitions.

Another possible obstacle are economic issues. Although both leaders committed themselves to correcting trade imbalances, Trump's focus on lowering the $50 billion U.S. trade deficit with India could collide with India's protectionist inclinations. The capacity of both countries to negotiate these conflicting interests will determine the outcome of "Mission 500" and the suggested bilateral trade agreement.

One cannot overlook the more general geopolitical consequences of closer U.S.-Indian relations. China could see this growing cooperation as part of an encirclement strategy, perhaps resulting in more forceful diplomacy around the world or along disputed borders. Moscow may also deepen its allegiance to Beijing as India approaches Washington, therefore destabilizing polarity as India’s ambitions come closer to fruition.

These difficulties, however, may prove the importance of the tripolar approach itself. The U.S. wants to encourage a multipolar world order that lessens reliance on U.S.-China dynamics by enabling India as an independent actor. Rather than being a liability, India's historical non-alignment posture could turn into a benefit since it will enable it to act as a link between rival nations and promote communication as needed.

Looking Forward

Clear progress toward tripolarity in global geopolitics was shown at the Trump-Modi meeting. Both countries have made major progress toward realizing this strategic objective by means of improved defense cooperation, increased economic cooperation, and more intense Indo-Pacific engagement. Although obstacles still exist, the results of the summit imply that the tripolar approach is turning from idea into reality, therefore changing world power dynamics.

Maintaining this delicate balance of expanding U.S.-India ties while respecting India's strategic autonomy will determine the success of the tripolar strategy as the world negotiates an increasingly complicated geopolitical environment. The February 13 meeting will be remembered as a turning point in this ambitious geopolitical realignment, laying the groundwork for a new era in world politics in which India plays an ever more important function as a real third pole in the international order.

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