Table Stakes - January 12th

Good morning everyone,

I’m Atlas, and welcome to Table Stakes!

Here’s a look at today’s topics:

• NATO Allies Discuss Strengthening Arctic Presence Amid U.S. Pressure on Greenland

• Trump To Cuba: Make A Deal Before It’s Too Late

• Criminal Indictment Looms For Fed Chair Jerome Powell

NATO Allies Discuss Strengthening Arctic Presence Amid U.S. Pressure on Greenland

_{By: Atlas}

Britain, France and Germany are backing a joint NATO "Arctic Sentry" mission involving U.S. forces to show President Donald Trump that the alliance is actively protecting security interests in Greenland and the wider region, according to reports from multiple news outlets.

Alliance ambassadors began talks on the mission last week, and plans were discussed by British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz on a video call last Friday, Bloomberg News reported.

A senior diplomat told The Times of London: "It was agreed that the NATO alliance needed to step up security in the high north to deter adversaries such as Russia."

The discussions come as Trump has intensified his rhetoric about acquiring Greenland, a semiautonomous region of NATO ally Denmark. Trump said Sunday night that making a deal for Greenland would be "easier" and insisted the U.S. needed to acquire it.

"One way or the other, we're going to have Greenland," he told reporters aboard Air Force One as he flew back to Washington.

European allies seek to defuse tensions through diplomacy

Germany will propose setting up a joint NATO mission called "Arctic Sentry" to secure the region, according to people familiar with the plans cited by Bloomberg. The alliance's "Baltic Sentry" mission, which was launched a year ago to shield critical infrastructure in the Baltic Sea, would serve as a blueprint.

German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul will meet with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio this week, when he will address the issue of Greenland and what role NATO can play in the region's stability.

"Because security in the Arctic is becoming increasingly important, I also want to discuss on my trip how we can best bear this responsibility in NATO — in view of old and new rivalries in the region by Russia and China — together," Wadephul said in a statement on Sunday.

Lars Klingbeil, Germany's vice-chancellor, will hold talks in Washington on Monday with Scott Bessent, the U.S. treasury secretary, over securing the West's access to critical raw materials and natural resources such as those in Greenland.

"We are strengthening security in the Arctic together as NATO allies. Not in opposition to each other," he told Germany's DPA news agency.

On Tuesday, Lars Løkke Rasmussen and Vivian Motzfeldt, foreign ministers of Denmark and Greenland, will meet Rubio with the aim of defusing tensions with Trump.

Britain characterizes Arctic talks as 'business as usual'

British Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander said discussions about securing the high north against Russia and China were part of NATO's "business as usual" rather than a response to the U.S. military threat.

The Telegraph reported on Saturday that military chiefs from Britain and other European countries were drawing up plans for a possible NATO mission in Greenland. The newspaper said British officials had begun early-stage talks with Germany, France and others on plans that could involve deploying British troops, warships and aircraft to protect Greenland from Russia and China.

But Alexander told BBC One's Sunday With Laura Kuenssberg the report "possibly reads something more into business as usual discussions amongst NATO allies than there actually are."

She said the U.K. agreed with Trump that the Arctic Circle "is becoming an increasingly contested part of the world with the ambitions of Putin and China."

"Whilst we haven't seen the appalling consequences in that part of the world that we've seen in Ukraine, it is really important that we do everything that we can with all of our NATO allies to ensure that we have an effective deterrent in that part of the globe against Putin," Alexander told the BBC.

Britain's former ambassador to the U.S., Peter Mandelson, said he did not think Trump would take Greenland by force.

"He's not a fool," Mandelson said. "We are all going to have to wake up to the reality that the Arctic needs securing against China and Russia. And if you ask me who is going to lead in that effort to secure, we all know, don't we, that it's going to be the United States."

Diplomats dispute Trump's claims of Russian, Chinese vessels near Greenland

Diplomatic sources said the alliance had no intelligence that there was significant activity by Russian and Chinese vessels or submarines around Greenland despite Trump's claims that the island was "covered with Russian and Chinese ships."

Espen Barth Eide, Norway's foreign minister, told the NRK broadcaster this weekend: "It is not correct that there is a lot of activity from Russia or China around Greenland. There is a lot of Russian and some Chinese activity elsewhere in the Arctic including in our local areas. But around Greenland there is actually quite little."

Trump has not provided any evidence to back up his claims of Russian and Chinese vessels operating near Greenland, which Denmark disputes.

Vessel tracking data from MarineTraffic and LSEG show no Chinese or Russian ship presence near Greenland.

Denmark warns takeover would threaten NATO alliance

Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen described the situation as "a crossroads" and "a moment of destiny" for NATO. She told a meeting in Nyborg on Sunday: "If you turn your back on NATO cooperation by threatening an ally, something we have not seen before, everything comes to an end. And I mean that."

In a joint statement by all five of Greenland's political parties on Friday night, after Trump's latest comments, the island's parliament insisted that "the future of Greenland must be decided by Greenlanders." It said: "We don't want to be Americans, we don't want to be Danish, we want to be Greenlanders."

Tensions have grown between the U.S. and Denmark since the Trump administration renewed its warnings against Greenland. Jesper Møller Sørensen, Denmark's ambassador to the U.S., fired back at newly tapped U.S. Greenland envoy Jeff Landry, who said in a social media post that the "U.S. defended Greenland's sovereignty during (World War II) when Denmark couldn't."

Sørensen responded that Denmark has always stood alongside the U.S., particularly after the Sept. 11, 2001 attacks, and that only Greenlanders should decide their future.

"Let's continue to address security challenges in the Arctic as partners & allies," Sørensen wrote.

Trump dismissed concerns about NATO on Sunday, proclaiming himself the savior of NATO for encouraging member countries to boost their defense spending.

"I like NATO," he said. He then questioned "whether or not, if we needed NATO, would they be there for us? I'm not sure they would."

NATO's Article 5 common defense guarantee, which treats an attack on one member as an attack on them all, has only been invoked once, in the wake of the September 11, 2001 terror attacks on the United States, leading to NATO's operation in Afghanistan.

Ed Davey, leader of Britain's Liberal Democrat Party, suggested Britain offer to deploy troops to Greenland in a joint command with Denmark.

"If Trump is serious about security, he'd agree to participate and drop his outrageous threats," Davey said. "Tearing the NATO alliance apart would only play into the hands of Putin."

It remains unclear how remaining NATO members would respond if the U.S. decided to forcibly take control of the island or if they would come to Denmark's aid.

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