Table Stakes - January 20th

Good morning everyone,

I’m Daniel, and welcome to Table Stakes!

Here’s a look at today’s topics:

• Trump is back in office, what does that mean for the Middle East?

• The President of South Korea is now under arrest

• The US holds its first joint naval drill of 2025 w/ the Philippines

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Trump’s Second Term, and what it means for the Middle East

_{By: Daniel Murrah, Staff Writer for Atlas}

As Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House, his influence in the Middle East is already reshaping regional dynamics. The recent breakthrough in Gaza peace negotiations, achieved through his envoy Steve Witkoff's direct engagement with Prime Minister Netanyahu, has caught many diplomatic observers by surprise. This early success, coming weeks before his official return to office, signals a distinctive shift in American Middle East policy.

The timing of this diplomatic achievement carries particular weight. While the Biden administration struggled for months to secure a ceasefire, Trump's team managed to broker an agreement through a single intensive weekend of negotiations. This outcome suggests that Trump's unorthodox approach to diplomacy, often criticized during his first term, may hold more promise than his detractors have acknowledged.

Building on the Abraham Accords

Trump's vision for his second term centers heavily on expanding the Abraham Accords, with particular emphasis on achieving Saudi-Israeli normalization. His team views the recent Gaza ceasefire as a stepping stone toward broader regional agreements, betting that economic incentives and shared strategic interests can overcome decades of regional hostility.

Yet this approach faces substantial challenges. While the Abraham Accords achieved notable diplomatic breakthroughs, critics argue that these agreements sidestepped fundamental regional issues, particularly Palestinian rights. The question remains whether Trump's deal-making approach can address these deeper concerns or if it will continue to prioritize headline-making agreements over lasting solutions.

The Iranian Challenge

Perhaps the most significant shift in regional policy under Trump's return centers on Iran, where a revival of the "maximum pressure" campaign appears imminent. This strategy combines aggressive economic sanctions with a credible threat of military action, marking a stark departure from current diplomatic efforts.

Trump's supporters argue that only through intense pressure can meaningful constraints be placed on Iran's nuclear ambitions and regional influence. However, regional experts warn that renewed maximum pressure could escalate tensions and potentially accelerate Iran's nuclear development rather than contain it. The possibility of military strikes against Iranian targets raises serious concerns about regional stability.

Palestinian Questions and Regional Stability

Trump's approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict represents a departure from traditional peace process frameworks. His team's success in brokering the Gaza ceasefire demonstrates their preference for immediate, practical results over comprehensive peace initiatives. While this strategy has shown early promise, it raises questions about the long-term prospects for Palestinian aspirations.

The focus on top-down diplomatic agreements, while potentially effective in fostering regional cooperation, may not adequately address the humanitarian situation in Gaza or advance meaningful progress toward a two-state solution. Trump's supporters argue that his approach creates new opportunities through regional cooperation and economic incentives, but critics worry about the marginalization of Palestinian interests in pursuit of broader diplomatic achievements.

Reshaping Regional Alliances

Trump's return could accelerate the transformation of Middle Eastern alliances that began during his first term. His personal relationships with Gulf leaders, particularly in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, combined with his steadfast support for Israel, position him uniquely to broker new regional arrangements. This network of relationships, strengthened by shared concerns about Iran and economic interests, may lead to unprecedented cooperation between Israel and Arab states.

The recent Gaza breakthrough exemplifies this dynamic. As reported by The Times of Israel, Trump's envoy achieved more substantial progress in a single meeting with Netanyahu than months of traditional diplomatic efforts. This success suggests that Trump's personal style of diplomacy, while unconventional, can be remarkably effective in the Middle Eastern context.

The Path Forward

As Trump prepares to retake office, his Middle East policy appears set to prioritize deal-making and personal relationships over traditional diplomatic approaches. The immediate success with the Gaza ceasefire indicates this strategy can yield results, but questions remain about its long-term effectiveness in addressing the region's deep-seated conflicts.

The coming months will prove crucial in determining whether Trump's approach can translate diplomatic breakthroughs into lasting stability. His team's ability to balance competing regional interests while maintaining American strategic objectives faces immediate tests. The Gaza ceasefire, while significant, represents just the beginning of what promises to be an active period of Middle East diplomacy.

Political analyst Nassim Taleb's observation that Trump's approach offers "a possibility of peace coupled with loud saber rattling" captures the essence of what his second term might mean for the Middle East. This unconventional methodology, combining aggressive posturing with pragmatic deal-making, may reshape regional dynamics in unexpected ways.

The success or failure of Trump's Middle East strategy will ultimately depend on his ability to transform diplomatic victories into sustainable solutions that address both immediate crises and underlying regional tensions. While his deal-making approach has shown early promise, the true test lies in whether these agreements can foster lasting peace and stability in one of the world's most volatile regions.

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