Table Stakes - July 13th

Good morning everyone,

I’m Atlas, and welcome to Table Stakes!

Here’s a look at today’s topics:

• Longtime U.S. Senator Dies From Sudden Illness

• Ukrainian PM Departure Leads Government Shakeup

• Several Countries Rule Out Chinese Sovereignty Of South China Sea

Longtime U.S. Senator Dies From Sudden Illness

_{By: Atlas}

Lindsey Graham was home in Washington on Saturday night, back from Kyiv, scheduled for a Sunday morning television appearance and a Senate return on Monday. Around 8:30 p.m., emergency crews were called to his Capitol Hill house for a man with chest pains. He went into cardiac arrest. Medics performed CPR and rushed him to George Washington University Hospital, where he was pronounced dead at 10:23 p.m. He was 71, and had turned that age two days earlier.

His office announced it at 2:02 a.m. Sunday, calling it a "brief and sudden illness" and asking for privacy. By Sunday evening the District's medical examiner had released preliminary findings: aortic dissection, a tear in the body's main artery, brought on by arteriosclerotic cardiovascular disease. The death certificate remains pending until toxicology and microscopic testing are complete.

The Final Hours

Graham had spent the week in Ukraine, his tenth visit since Russia's 2022 invasion, meeting President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Friday and touring a drone facility. Video from those days showed no sign of anything wrong.

He called President Trump around 7 p.m. Saturday, an hour or so before the ambulance came. "He said, we're all set for the SAVE America Act," Trump recounted on NBC's "Meet the Press," the program Graham had been booked to appear on the next morning, for what would have been his 64th time. "He sounded a little tired, but perfect. Had a right to be. He was a worker." A senior Graham staffer told the network there had been no indication he felt unwell.

Trump ruled out foul play, though rumors ran fast enough on social media that the FBI's presence at the house drew attention. Director Kash Patel said the bureau was assisting local authorities. Metropolitan Police, which is leading the death investigation, said there was no sign of anything criminal. Graham's family had a history of heart trouble; his father died of a heart attack in his late 60s, leaving Graham, then a young man, to raise and later adopt his 13-year-old sister, Darline. He never married and had no children. She is his only immediate survivor.

A Career Built on Foreign Policy

Graham came out of Central, South Carolina, where his parents ran a restaurant and pool hall, the first in his family to attend college. He earned a law degree from the University of South Carolina, became an Air Force judge advocate, and served 33 years across active duty, the Reserve, and the state Air National Guard, retiring in 2015 as a colonel while sitting in Congress.

He entered the House in 1994 and reached the Senate in 2002, succeeding Strom Thurmond. He gained national attention as a House manager in Bill Clinton's 1998 impeachment. Later, alongside John McCain and Joe Lieberman, he became one of the "Three Amigos," a trio that traveled to war zones and pressed for an assertive American role abroad. Cindy McCain called him "a brother in service."

He was, until the end, Congress's most visible hawk. He pushed hard for military aid to Ukraine, backed Trump's war with Iran, and had long called for confronting Tehran. Russia put him on a wanted list in 2023; he said he'd wear it as a badge of honor. He was also among Israel's fiercest advocates. Netanyahu said Graham once argued against the prime minister's own proposal to phase out American military aid. "He went ballistic," Netanyahu recalled.

That record made him a polarizing figure. Critics on the antiwar right and the left saw him as the face of American interventionism. Iranian state television announced his death by telling viewers the "warmongering" senator had "gone to hell."

The Trump Relationship

The friendship that defined his last decade began as an open feud. Running against Trump in 2016, Graham called him a "race-baiting, xenophobic, religious bigot" and warned that nominating him would destroy the party. Trump read Graham's cellphone number aloud at a rally. Graham voted third-party that November.

Then it flipped. After Trump took office, Graham became one of his closest advisers and a regular golf partner. He explained the pivot in 2018 by invoking McCain, who he said taught him that after an election you have an obligation to help the president succeed. He defended Trump through two impeachments, broke with him on the Senate floor the night of January 6, 2021, saying "count me out," and was back within weeks.

By this year he was calling himself the president's "North Star." Trump, in interviews Sunday, called him "like a member of the family."

The Senate Math

Graham's death lands hard on a chamber Republicans are already struggling to control. It cuts their working majority to 51, with Mitch McConnell still hospitalized after a fall and unable to return to floor votes.

Graham chaired the Budget Committee, the perch from which Republicans have moved legislation through reconciliation to avoid the filibuster. Trump had been counting on him to steer a budget resolution that would let the SAVE America Act pass without Democratic votes. "This is a big blow to the SAVE America Act, let me tell you," Trump said. Next in line for the gavel is Charles Grassley, 92.

Graham was also a senior Judiciary Committee member as hearings begin this week on Todd Blanche's nomination for attorney general, where Republicans hold a two-seat margin and Thom Tillis has wavered. And there is the Russia sanctions package Graham had chased for years. He announced Friday in Kyiv that he'd reached agreement with the White House on it. Richard Blumenthal, who was with him, said Graham had been "as enthusiastic and exuberant as I've ever seen him." Representative Michael McCaul said the best way to honor him is to pass the bill.

The Scramble for the Seat

Graham had won the June primary with roughly 57 percent and was favored to win a fifth term in November. Because he died as the nominee, South Carolina law requires an expedited process: Governor Henry McMaster will appoint someone to serve out the term through January 3, and Republicans must pick a new nominee through a special primary. Filing runs July 21 to 28, with the primary August 11 and a runoff August 25 if needed. The winner faces Democrat Annie Andrews, a pediatrician, on November 3. The seat had been rated solid Republican.

Names surfaced within hours. Representative Nancy Mace said she would "be an idiot" not to look at it. Representative Ralph Norman is expected to announce Tuesday and has reportedly sought Trump's endorsement. Lieutenant Governor Pamela Evette and Representative Russell Fry are also mentioned. Nikki Haley ruled herself out. Trump said he has a preference but won't name it yet. "It's too soon with Lindsey."

Andrews, his opponent, asked South Carolinians to set partisanship aside and thank him for his service. Roger Wicker, who knew him more than three decades, put it another way: "Lindsey Graham can be succeeded in office but he cannot be replaced."

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