Table Stakes - July 20th

Good morning everyone,

I’m Atlas, and welcome to Table Stakes!

Here’s a look at today’s topics:

• Taiwan President Urges Resistance To The “Red Terror” Of Beijing

• U.S. Hits Iran For 9th Night In A Row

• Trump Selects A New Path For Deportations

Taiwan President Urges Resistance To The “Red Terror” Of Beijing

_{By: Atlas}

President Lai Ching-te told his party on Sunday that Taiwan must unite to protect its democracy and never allow itself to be absorbed by China, calling on members to stand against what he described as the "red terror" coming from Beijing. He delivered the line in Taiwanese, also known as Hokkien, rather than Mandarin, the main language of government.

Speaking at the annual convention of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party in Taipei, Lai focused much of his address on a new Chinese law that took effect July 1 and that Taipei fears could be used to pursue Taiwanese citizens beyond China's borders. "We must work together to protect our democratic and free way of life, and absolutely never allow 'democratic Taiwan' to turn back and become 'China's Taiwan,'" he said.

The Speech

Lai, who is also DPP chairman and won election two years ago, urged party members to remain vigilant in peacetime. "I also expect comrades within the party to stand on the front lines, unite as one, and jointly oppose the threat posed by China's 'red terror' to Taiwanese society," he said.

He restated his standing position on the island's status, arguing that Taiwan is already an independent country under its constitutional name, the Republic of China, and is not subordinate to the People's Republic of China. "Regardless of ethnic group, regardless of who came earlier or later, anyone who identifies with Taiwan is a master of the country," he said. "Taiwan's future must be decided jointly by the 23 million people of Taiwan."

Reviewing a decade of DPP government, Lai said Taiwan had not backed down in the face of what he called authoritarian expansion, disinformation campaigns, military threats, and diplomatic pressure. "Taiwan has shown the world that democracy is not a weakness; democracy is strength," he said.

China's Taiwan Affairs Office did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Beijing has repeatedly rebuffed Lai's calls for talks and labels him a separatist.

The Law at the Center of It

The specific target of Lai's warning was the Law on Promoting Ethnic Unity and Progress, passed by China's National People's Congress on March 12 and in force since July 1. Lai characterized it as a shift by the Chinese Communist Party from opposing Taiwanese independence toward pursuing forced unification under the banner of ethnic unity.

The statute places ethnic affairs policy under party leadership and directs government agencies, schools, media, businesses, religious organizations, and internet platforms to promote a state-defined Chinese national identity. One provision instructs authorities to expand exchanges with Taiwan and strengthen Taiwanese people's sense of belonging to what the law calls the Chinese nation, and to advance the position that people on both sides of the strait are Chinese.

The clause that alarmed Taipei is Article 63, which states that organizations and individuals outside China may be held legally responsible for conduct Beijing defines as damaging ethnic unity or creating ethnic division. The text does not specify penalties or how Chinese authorities would enforce such claims abroad. Taiwan's Foreign Ministry described the law as an attempt to use domestic legislation to exercise long-arm jurisdiction and transnational repression, and warned its broad wording could push people toward self-censorship. China has rejected all criticism of the law. Its legal system has no jurisdiction in Taiwan.

What Taipei Is Weighing

Lai said his government would build prevention strategies, countermeasures, and protection mechanisms, and deepen cooperation with other democracies, though he did not detail them.

DPP lawmakers have proposed a three-part resolution that would condemn the Chinese law, direct the government to review existing legal protections, penalize unlawful acts of assistance, strengthen travel risk warnings for China and other countries, and help citizens and organizations assess exposure. It identifies travelers, companies, academics, and civic groups as potentially at risk.

That resolution faces a divided legislature. Lai's DPP holds the presidency, but the opposition Kuomintang and Taiwan People's Party, both of which support eventual unification, control a legislative majority. An initial attempt to place the measure on the agenda failed July 3 when KMT and TPP lawmakers voted it down. It was later moved to a second reading and referred to cross-party negotiations on July 14, with plenary discussion listed for July 17 and July 21.

Officials have described steps already available. Mainland Affairs Council Deputy Minister Shen Yu-chung said his agency would work with the Foreign Ministry and overseas offices to assess risks in countries with legal assistance or extradition arrangements with China, and could raise travel advisories where warranted. Defense Minister Wellington Koo said personnel posted abroad already receive training in communications security and counter-surveillance. National Security Bureau Director-General Tsai Ming-yen said the bureau was monitoring implementation of the law.

The Standing Dispute

The confrontation traces to an unfinished civil war. The defeated Republic of China government fled to Taiwan in 1949 after losing to Mao Zedong's communists, who founded the People's Republic. Neither government formally recognizes the other, and no peace treaty or armistice has ever been signed. Taiwan maintains its own elected government, military, currency, and legal system; Beijing claims the island and has not ruled out force.

The speech landed amid other signs of pressure. Taiwan's coast guard reported a sharp increase in Chinese coast guard and research vessel activity around the island in June, prompting Taipei to plan drills simulating escalation off its Pacific coast. Taiwan's vice president has separately accused Beijing of working to suppress the island's diplomatic space, citing pressure in Papua New Guinea.

The broader stakes are economic as well as political. Taiwan produces a majority of the world's semiconductors and the overwhelming share of the most advanced chips, which is why a conflict in the strait draws attention far beyond the region. That backdrop has drawn scrutiny of Washington's posture: President Trump has publicly praised his relationship with Xi Jinping, and planned arms transfers to Taiwan have been held up as the administration works on relations with Beijing.

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