Table Stakes - June 16th

Good morning everyone,

I’m Daniel, and welcome to Table Stakes!

Here’s a look at today’s topics:

• Trump Vetoes Strike On Iran’s Supreme Leader

• U.S. State Dept. Weights Adding 36 Countries To Travel Ban

• Prisoner Swap Continues Between Ukraine & Russia

Trump Vetoes Strike On Iran’s Supreme Leader

_{By: Daniel Murrah, Staff Writer for Atlas}

In recent weeks, U.S.-Israeli cooperation hit a low point when Israeli officials proposed to the Trump administration a plot to kill Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The suggestion came up as tensions were rising after Israel's missile attacks that were meant to stop Iran's nuclear program. It was a bold move in the shadow war between Jerusalem and Tehran. But US President Donald Trump quickly blocked the plan while he was in his second term and told Israeli authorities to stand down. Several U.S. sources said that Trump's decision was based on a clear position: the U.S. would not consider striking Iran's top leaders unless Iran actually caused American deaths. "Have the Iranians killed one American yet? No. A high-ranking U.S. administration official said, "We are not even thinking about going after the political leadership until that happens."

Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu talked to each other a lot, and the White House made its opposition apparent through direct channels. Netanyahu, who didn't want to confirm the details of the alleged proposal, called the idea of such talks "inaccurate" and stressed Israel's resolve to do what is necessary while respecting U.S. interests. This conversation showed how hard it is for the U.S. and Israel to work together, since their strategic goals often conflict with each other. During this time, Trump's public comments showed two sides: he was hopeful that peace would come soon—“we will achieve PEACE soon,” he wrote on social media—and he was also very severe with Iran about not attacking U.S. assets in the area. The choice to stop the murder plot was part of a larger U.S. strategy of restraint, which was meant to stop a cycle of violence that may lead to a larger war in the Middle East.

Escalation and Diplomacy

The veto has big effects on the Middle East, where military actions, nuclear ambitions, and economic interests all come into play in a very unstable way. The Trump administration showed that it would rather de-escalate than take moves that could lead to a larger conflict by rejecting Israel's plan. The recent Israeli attacks on Iran, which hit sites connected to its nuclear program, had already stopped U.S.-Iran nuclear discussions in Oman. This shows how fragile diplomatic attempts may be. Iran's threats to possibly close the Strait of Hormuz, which is a key point for the world's oil supplies, made the possibility of an economic crisis much more real and increased the chances of an uncontrolled escalation. The U.S. decision to stop the killing is a planned gesture to keep the door open for talks, even though Israel's more forceful stance could hurt these efforts.

Also, Israel's willingness to help with such a risky operation shows that it is becoming more likely to act alone, which could change the balance of power in the region. This attitude might encourage other countries, like Saudi Arabia or the Gulf states, to pursue their own ambitions, which would make the U.S. less of a stabilizing factor in the region. The veto also reveals how little control the U.S. has over Israel's security choices. Jerusalem is more and more worried about Iran's nuclear program and its influence in the neighborhood. The attack on Iran's South Pars gas field, which is a key economic asset, demonstrates how the conflict is already hurting important infrastructure. This will have effects on energy markets all around the world. The U.S. is trying to decrease these dangers by putting restraint first, but the current problem is still mostly about the tension between Washington's caution and Israel's enthusiasm.

A Changing Relationship

Trump's veto is a turning point in the U.S.-Israeli relationship, showing that there are problems under the surface of a historically strong alliance. The choice shows a transactional mindset, where U.S. support for Israel is more and more based on how well it fits with U.S. objectives. Trump's administration has been willing to go against Israel's wishes, unlike the time when the US always supported Israel. For example, the US has been trying to communicate directly with Iran and negotiate with groups like the Houthis. Analysts are worried that this change could lead to a long-term realignment. Jonathan Panikoff of the Atlantic Council said, "If the Israelis told Trump they were going to strike and they went through with the plan anyway, we may look back at Thursday as the night when the US-Israel relationship changed for good."

The uncertainty of future US military aid makes things even more complicated. Israel may need to show that its activities promote greater U.S. goals, such regional security and combating Iran's influence without starting a bigger war, in order to get more help once a significant ten-year pact runs out. The veto makes this conditional situation even clearer by showing that the U.S. will not give Israel a blank check to do things that could hurt American interests. The alliance is still strong, but it is becoming a more practical collaboration. Both sides have to figure out their goals in a Middle East that is changing quickly. For Israel, this means finding a balance between its security needs and the need to keep U.S. support; for the U.S., it means finding a balance between supporting an important ally and pursuing bigger diplomatic aims.

Moving Forward

President Trump's decision to veto Israel's plan to murder Ayatollah Khamenei is a valuable indicator of the state of US ties with Israel. Even if the government is having trouble with a close ally, it is trying to avoid a terrible war in the area by putting diplomacy and de-escalation first. The change is part of a wider change in strategy toward conditional cooperation, in which U.S. help is based on the other country's needs. The veto gives the Middle East a brief respite from the battle, but it does nothing to address the fundamental problems that are fueling the Israel-Iran conflict. The U.S. needs to find out how to stay significant in a region that is set to erupt as nuclear talks fall apart and countries in the vicinity become more independent. Trump's caution has retained a fragile status quo for now, but the changing relationship between the U.S. and Israel and the uncertain situation in the Middle East show that this moment could have a long-term impact on the region.

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