Table Stakes - March 2nd

Good morning everyone,

I’m Atlas, and welcome to Table Stakes!

Here’s a look at today’s topics:

• ‘Operation Fury’ Leads To Complete Middle East Shakeup

• Emergency U.N. Security Council Meeting Leads To Verbal Clashes

• Trump Campaigns On ‘American Energy Dominance’ Ahead Of Primary Voting

‘Operation Fury’ Leads To Complete Middle East Shakeup

_{By: Atlas}

The United States and Israel launched a coordinated military campaign against Iran early Saturday morning, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and dozens of the country's most senior military and intelligence officials in the opening hours of an operation the U.S. military has designated Operation Epic Fury. The strikes represent the most significant American military action against Iran in decades and have triggered a wave of Iranian counterattacks against U.S. military installations across the Middle East.

Three American service members have been killed and five others seriously wounded. Several additional troops sustained minor shrapnel injuries and concussions. The operation, which U.S. Central Command described as fluid and ongoing through Sunday, came after negotiators failed to reach a nuclear deal during talks in Geneva that concluded without a breakthrough on February 26.

The Opening Strike and the Death of Khamenei

The joint operation began at approximately 8:45 a.m. local time Saturday — in broad daylight — when U.S. and Israeli forces simultaneously targeted two separate gatherings of senior Iranian officials. The timing was not incidental. Israeli military spokesman said the attack was designed to "seize an operational opportunity" to strike multiple regime leadership figures at once.

Khamenei, 86, who had ruled Iran as supreme leader since 1989, was killed in strikes targeting his leadership compound and residence in downtown Tehran. Satellite imagery showed heavy damage to the compound in the aftermath. Killed alongside him were Lt. Gen. Abdolrahim Mousavi, chief of the general staff of the Iranian Armed Forces; Defense Minister Maj. Gen. Aziz Nasirzadeh; and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commander Gen. Mohammad Pakpour, according to Iranian state media. Trump said Sunday that 48 Iranian leaders were killed in the opening strike alone.

The CIA had been actively tracking Khamenei's location for months in preparation for the operation, according to a person familiar with the matter who spoke to reporters on condition of anonymity. Trump, in a Truth Social post on Saturday, said the United States and Israel "worked closely and employed sophisticated tracking technologies" to locate Khamenei and other officials.

"There was not a thing he, or the other leaders that have been killed along with him, could do," Trump wrote. He also directed a message at the Iranian people: "This is the single greatest chance for the Iranian people to take back their Country."

The Scale of the Air Campaign

Within the first 24 hours, U.S. and Israeli forces struck more than 1,000 targets inside Iran. U.S. Central Command said the targets included the IRGC's headquarters, air defense systems, ballistic missile launch sites, naval ships — including submarines — command and control centers, and Iranian military communications infrastructure.

The assets deployed included B-2 stealth bombers, F-18, F-16, F-22, and F-35 fighter jets, A-10 attack aircraft, EA-18G electronic jamming jets, MQ-9 Reaper drones, and Tomahawk land attack missiles. More than 200 Israeli jets participated in the opening hours of the operation, launching over 500 munitions, according to the Israeli Defense Forces.

The Nuclear Threat Initiative, an international nuclear weapons monitoring organization, reported that more than 30 known nuclear sites and 17 missile sites inside Iran were struck or targeted within the first 24 hours. Among the sites hit were the Isfahan research and conversion plants, uranium enrichment infrastructure in Qom Province, and sites in Tehran linked to command and intelligence operations. B-2 stealth bombers struck hardened ballistic missile facilities using 2,000-pound bombs.

Trump announced Sunday that U.S. forces sank nine Iranian naval ships, including an Iranian Jamaran-class corvette confirmed by CENTCOM as struck at the port of Chabahar on the Gulf of Oman. Iran's naval headquarters was also largely destroyed, Trump said.

"We are going after the rest," Trump wrote on Truth Social. "They will soon be floating at the bottom of the sea."

Israel's parallel operation, codenamed Operation Roaring Lion, is running concurrently with the U.S. campaign. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sunday that attacks on Tehran would be escalated in the coming days.

Iran's Retaliation and Regional Fallout

Iran's Revolutionary Guard launched its retaliatory campaign, dubbed True Promise 4, targeting U.S. military installations across the region. The Guard said it struck the U.S. Navy's 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain, the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, Ali Al Salem Air Base in Kuwait, and Al Dhafra Air Base in the United Arab Emirates. Additional targets in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Jordan, and Israel were also struck.

The UAE's Ministry of Defense reported that 137 Iranian ballistic missiles and 209 Iranian drones were launched at the country. Of those missiles, 132 were destroyed and five fell into the sea. Of the drones, 195 were intercepted, with 14 falling within UAE territory and waters, causing what the ministry described as "some collateral damage." One person of Asian nationality was killed in the first wave of strikes on the UAE.

In Israel, nine people were killed and dozens wounded in a strike on Beit Shemesh, with Israeli police reporting 11 others unaccounted for. Explosions were heard across Tel Aviv, attributed to missile impacts or interceptions. Gulf states collectively reported shooting down more than 1,500 Iranian missiles and drones combined. Iran also declared the Strait of Hormuz "effectively closed," a move that sent oil prices sharply higher.

Inside Iran, more than 200 people have been killed since the strikes began, according to Iranian officials. At least 165 of those deaths occurred when a strike hit a girls' school in southern Iran, according to the local governor, who reported the figure to Iranian state media.

The IRGC claimed to have struck the USS Abraham Lincoln with four ballistic missiles. CENTCOM flatly denied it. "The Lincoln was not hit. The Missiles launched didn't even come close," CENTCOM posted on X, adding that the carrier continued to launch aircraft in support of ongoing operations.

Trump's Explanation and the Political Response

Trump, speaking to NBC News on Sunday from Mar-a-Lago, said the strikes were the result of Iran's refusal to compromise on its nuclear program during negotiations.

"They weren't willing to stop their nuclear research," Trump said. "They weren't willing to say they will not have a nuclear weapon."

He acknowledged the casualties plainly. "We have three, but we expect casualties. But in the end, it's going to be a great deal for the world." He said earlier in a video address that "the lives of courageous American heroes may be lost, and we may have casualties. That often happens in war. But we're doing this not for now. We're doing this for the future."

Trump said the operation was "ahead of schedule" and added that the U.S. might pause its bombardment if Iran could "satisfy us," but that it had not yet done so.

Congressional Democrats condemned the decision, arguing that Trump should have consulted Congress before ordering strikes on a country of more than 90 million people. Congressional Democrats announced plans to force war powers votes. Trump received general support from Republicans, though some in the party said the military action conflicted with his stated commitment to avoiding foreign wars.

In the aftermath of Khamenei's death, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian announced the formation of an interim leadership council, including himself, Guardian Council jurist member Ayatollah Alireza Arafi, and head of the Iranian judiciary Gholam Hossein Mohseni Eje'i.

Trump told The Atlantic on Sunday that Iran's new leadership had expressed interest in talks. "They should have done it sooner," he said. "They waited too long." Oman's foreign minister, who mediated the Geneva negotiations, said Sunday that "the door to diplomacy remains open."

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