Table Stakes - March 9th

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I’m Daniel, and welcome to Table Stakes!

Here’s a look at today’s topics:

• Russia Uses Pipelines to Gain Ground in Ukraine

• Israel to Begin Second Phase of Ceasefire Talks in Doha

• Alleged Migration Manipulation Tactics Conducted By Russia

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Russia Uses Pipelines to Gain Ground in Ukraine

_{By: Daniel Murrah, Staff Writer for Atlas}

The battle in Ukraine has drastically changed as of March 9, 2025 with Russia's bold use of gas pipeline networks as a means of military action. This unorthodox strategy, carried out in the Kursk area close to the important town of Sudzha, highlights Moscow's unrelenting quest to recover land lost to the audacious August 2024 assault by Ukraine. Reflecting a adaptability in a fight already running into its fourth year, the operation saw Russian special forces negotiate almost 15 kilometers via the complex tubes of a disused gas pipe. Traditionally a lifeline for Russian natural gas supplies to Europe, the pipeline—part of the Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod network—has been turned into a quiet route for infiltration, surprising Ukrainian troops.

New Tactics

Equipped with gas masks and flashlights, reports show that Russian agents spent days hidden inside the 1.5-meter-wide pipes before emerging to attack Ukrainian forces from the rear. Targeting Sudzha, a town of great significance due to its gas transfer facilities and proximity to the Ukrainian border in the Sumy area, this surprise move—documented by pro-Russian bloggers and acknowledged by Ukraine's General Staff—was unexpected. Russia's recapture of towns like Lebedevka, northwest of Sudzha, and Novenke, a hamlet over the border in Sumy, clearly shows the success of the operation as Moscow's counteroffensive gains considerable increase. Promoting confidence in surrounding Ukrainian soldiers, former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev boasted on Telegram that "the lid of the smoking cauldron is almost closed."

The larger background indicates a war of attrition as Russia sends over 50,000 troops—including North Korean reinforcements—to undo Ukraine's earlier 1,300 square kilometer advances in Kursk. While Moscow's reaction has been quick and relentless, Kyiv's August offensive sought to gain leverage for future peace negotiations and redirect Russian resources from eastern Ukraine. Although dangerous, this pipeline strategy exposes a trend toward hybrid warfare—that is, using infrastructural weaknesses to avoid traditional defenses—a strategy that could change the dynamics of the battlefield as the war continues.

Changing Power Balance

Russia's gas pipeline offensive in Kursk and Sumy has great consequences for the course of the war since it shifts the balance of strength at a turning point. The tactical innovation not only shows Moscow's adaptability but also increases the burden on Ukraine's already taxed military forces. Weary from months of unrelenting attacks, Ukrainian forces have recorded notable Russian deaths in Sudzha using artillery and UAV equipment to combat the intruders. Pro-Russian media, meanwhile, assert that Moscow's multi-pronged push is causing Kyiv's fortifications to collapse under weight; villages such Malaya Lokhnya, Cherkasskoye Porechnoye, and Kositsa are falling back into Russian hands.

Timing of the process is not random. Following a controversial February 28 meeting between President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, the United States suspended military aid and information exchange, therefore leaving Kyiv exposed. This political change combined with Russia's more frequent drone and missile assaults meant to exhaust Ukraine's air defenses presents a twin-front struggle that might exceed Ukrainian fortitude. Russia's concurrent long-range strikes, launching 145 Shahed drones and missiles on March 7–8, indicate a planned strategy to deplete Kyiv's defensive capabilities, therefore complicating its reaction to ground assaults, observes the Institute of the Study of War.

Geopolitically, the pipeline strategy begs questions regarding regional stability and energy security. Although Europe has mostly turned away from Russian gas since 2022, the use of infrastructure like the Sudzha pipeline highlights its continued strategic importance. After a long-standing agreement with Moscow expired, Ukraine's decision to stop gas transit across its territory on January 1, 2025, may have unintentionally encouraged military exploitation by rendering the pipelines dormant yet accessible. The humanitarian toll is as alarming: formerly home to 5,000 people, Sudzha is now the center of heavy fighting and runs the danger of population displacement and destruction to important infrastructure. Russia's advantage drives the possibility of a protracted confrontation, with Moscow maybe leveraging these advances to strengthen its position in any future discussions, therefore undermining prospects for an early ceasefire.

The Road Ahead

The bold attack of Russia and Ukraine promises a difficult road ahead for both of them. For Ukraine, defensive pressure is the immediate concern. Estimates of the number of troops in Kursk range from 30,000 to 30,000; Russian drone attacks on supply lines aggravate logistical problems and weariness among these troops. As seen in open-source mappings, the prospect of encirclement might drive a politically and psychologically expensive retreat—or worse, mass deaths if supply lines are cut off. Although Kyiv's countermeasures have been successful in causing losses on Russian infiltrators, they have not stopped the more general advance, so quick adaptation to counter such unusual strategies is even more important.

Russia also bears hazards. Though creative, the pipeline approach puts operators in great risk if discovered early on; Ukrainian forces have previously shown they could react forcefully in Sudzha. Furthermore, Moscow's emphasis on Kursk could put pressure on resources elsewhere, therefore compromising its control on front lines in eastern Ukraine and Donetsk. While increasing numbers, the deployment of North Korean forces brings logistical and coordination challenges that might compromise operational cohesiveness. Russia runs a calculated risk of excess; maintaining this offensive under heavy losses and international attention could try its long-term survival.

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