Table Stakes - May 18th

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I’m Atlas, and welcome to Table Stakes!

Here’s a look at today’s topics:

• Trump On Iran: Clock Is Ticking

• Ukraine Launches 600 Drones Towards Russia, Strikes Moscow

• World Health Org. Declares Outbreak In Congo & Uganda

Trump On Iran: Clock Is Ticking

_{By: Atlas}

President Donald Trump renewed his ultimatum to Iran on Sunday, warning that the ruling regime is running out of time to accept a peace deal and threatening a sharper round of U.S. strikes if Tehran does not come back with a better offer.

"For Iran, the Clock is Ticking, and they better get moving, FAST, or there won't be anything left of them. TIME IS OF THE ESSENCE!" Trump wrote on Truth Social.

In a phone interview with Axios, Trump pressed the same line. "We want to make a deal. They are not where we want them to be. They will have to get there, or they will be hit badly, and they don't want that," he said. If Iran does not produce a more acceptable proposal soon, he said, the United States will hit it "much harder than before."

Trump declined to set a public deadline. He said he was still waiting on a revised Iranian offer after publicly dismissing the last one as "garbage."

The war, opened by joint U.S. and Israeli strikes on February 28, has been on an indefinite ceasefire for weeks. Skirmishes in and around the Strait of Hormuz have kept it frayed.

Drone Strike on UAE Nuclear Plant

The renewed pressure came hours after a drone hit the Barakah Nuclear Energy Plant, the United Arab Emirates' only nuclear power station. The drone struck an electrical generator outside the inner perimeter, igniting a fire on the facility's grounds but causing no casualties.

The UAE Defense Ministry said three drones entered Emirati airspace from the western border. Two were intercepted; one got through. Radiation levels at the plant remained normal, and the International Atomic Energy Agency confirmed there was no impact on radiological safety. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi called for "maximum military restraint" near any nuclear site.

UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al Nahyan told Grossi the country has the right to respond to what he called "terror attacks" on the plant. The UAE has not formally named a suspect. Anwar Gargash, a senior diplomatic adviser, was more pointed, writing on X that the attack — "whether carried out directly by the principal actor or through one of its proxies" — was a "dangerous escalation."

Iran has not claimed the strike. It is the first time the $20 billion South Korean-built plant has been targeted in the war. The UAE has accused Iran of launching at least two other attacks on its territory this month, including a missile and drone barrage that set fire to an oil refinery in Fujairah after Trump launched Project Freedom, the U.S. effort to escort commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz.

Pentagon Planning and a Call to Netanyahu

Trump spent the weekend in war-planning mode. On Saturday, he convened members of his national security team at his Virginia golf club. Vice President JD Vance, special envoy Steve Witkoff, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and CIA Director John Ratcliffe were among those at the table.

On Sunday morning, Trump spoke by phone with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. "Our eyes are also open regarding Iran," Netanyahu told his cabinet earlier in the day. "There are certainly many possibilities, and we are prepared for every scenario." Israeli and U.S. officials have begun coordinating on the option of resuming the air campaign against Iran.

Trump is expected to bring his top national security officials into the Situation Room on Tuesday for a formal review of military options. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told lawmakers in recent days that the Pentagon has an escalation plan ready.

Sen. Lindsey Graham, a South Carolina Republican, made the case for renewed strikes on NBC's "Meet the Press." "What President Trump has done has been amazing militarily, but there are more targets to be had, and there are things we can do to hurt Iran," Graham said.

Diplomacy Stalled but Not Dead

The formal diplomatic channel is being run by Pakistan, with Qatar mediating in parallel. Pakistan's interior minister visited Tehran on Saturday and Sunday for talks with senior Iranian officials. Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani spoke Sunday with both his Pakistani counterpart and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.

"The clock on diplomacy has not stopped. The peace process is working," Pakistani Foreign Ministry spokesman Tahir Andrabi told reporters in Islamabad.

Araghchi has said Iran would welcome diplomatic help from other countries, including China. Trump told Fox News that Chinese President Xi Jinping offered help during last week's Beijing summit, but Beijing has shown little public appetite for taking on the role.

U.S. intelligence assessments shared with Israeli officials indicate Tehran is pursuing a strategy of "deception and delay," gambling that stretching the crisis past several upcoming events — including the World Cup and the United States' 250th anniversary — will make a renewed military campaign politically harder for Trump.

Pressure Builds on the Ground

The economic pressure on Iran is becoming visible. A senior Israeli official said early signs of a fuel crisis emerged over the weekend, with long lines at gas stations and public complaints over shortages and distribution problems. "It's getting exponentially worse," the official said.

The U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports remains in place. Iran has not reopened the Strait of Hormuz, which it shut at the start of the war. Brent crude rose more than 2 percent on Sunday evening, trading at roughly $111 a barrel as the talks impasse and the UAE attack hit the screens.

Iranian state television, meanwhile, has been broadcasting unusual scenes. Two anchors appeared on air armed over the weekend, with one miming a shot at a UAE flag and the other declaring she was ready to die for the country. The on-air messaging, paired with public reluctance to back down on the nuclear file, is consistent with the assessment that Tehran is bracing for the campaign to resume.

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