Table Stakes - November 9th

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I’m Atlas, and welcome to Table Stakes!

Here’s a look at today’s topics:

• Israel’s President Gives Gadi Eisenkot The First Chance To Form A Government

• France Says Europeans Will Join U.S.-Mediated Russia-Ukraine Talks In Abu Dhabi

• Taiwan Detains Communist Party Leader Over Alleged Chinese Backing Of His Borough Chief Campaign

Israel’s President Gives Gadi Eisenkot The First Chance To Form A Government

_{By: Atlas}

Israeli President Isaac Herzog formally tasked Yashar leader Gadi Eisenkot with forming the country’s next government Sunday, at a ceremony scheduled for 5 p.m. (9 a.m. CST) at the President’s Residence in Jerusalem.

The handover starts a 28-day clock. Under Israeli law, Herzog can extend it by up to 14 days, giving Eisenkot as long as six weeks to assemble a coalition that can win a confidence vote in the 120-seat Knesset. His first deadline falls on Sunday, Dec. 6, and a full extension would push it to Sunday, Dec. 20.

Eisenkot, a former military chief of staff, told the ceremony he would lead the creation of a “national emergency government,” adding that “this will require creative and unconventional political moves.”

Herzog weighs recommendations against seat count

After consulting every incoming party last week, Herzog said representatives of 67 incoming lawmakers recommended Eisenkot, while 46 recommended Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. United Torah Judaism, with seven seats, recommended no one.

The president acknowledged that Netanyahu’s Likud remains the largest party, with 27 seats. “The fact that the Likud faction is the largest faction in the incoming Knesset has not escaped my attention,” Herzog said.

Herzog said Eisenkot had the “clear and unequivocal support” of a majority of lawmakers on the question of who was most likely to form a government. “I expect you to do everything in your power to establish a government that will serve the entire people,” he told Eisenkot.

The arithmetic toward 61

Final results from the Oct. 27 election, certified by the Central Elections Committee, left neither camp with a majority.

Netanyahu’s bloc holds 53 seats: Likud with 27, Otzma Yehudit with 7, United Torah Judaism with 7, Shas with 6, and the joint Religious Zionism and Zehut list with 6. Eisenkot’s bloc holds 48: Yashar with 21, Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad with 12, Yair Golan’s Democrats with 8 and Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu with 7.

The Arab-led parties won a record 19 seats, 11 for the Joint List and 8 for Ra’am. Both recommended Eisenkot, which together with his own bloc accounts for his 67 recommendations. Netanyahu’s 46 equal his bloc’s 53 seats without United Torah Judaism.

That leaves Eisenkot two main routes. Adding Ra’am and the Joint List would give him 67 seats, though their recommendations do not commit them to joining a coalition. Adding the two ultra-Orthodox parties, United Torah Judaism and Shas, would give him exactly 61.

Israeli television reported over the weekend that Shas would not stand in the way if United Torah Judaism’s rabbis approved joining an Eisenkot-led government. Shas called those reports “total fake news” and said it remains part of the right-wing bloc.

An invitation and a rejection

At the ceremony, Eisenkot addressed Netanyahu’s partners directly. “If Likud and the Religious Zionist Party members truly believe that this is a time for unity, as they declared before the president, I cannot imagine a reason why they would not join and support a government under my leadership and based on the principles I presented,” he said, according to a translation by The Jerusalem Post.

Those four principles are recognition of Israel as a Jewish and democratic state, acceptance of the values of its Declaration of Independence, mandatory service for all, and a commitment to fighting Hamas and dismantling its military and governing power. Eisenkot has said repeatedly that he will not serve with Netanyahu, and that anyone who held a senior post on Oct. 7, 2023, must leave public life.

Netanyahu set out Likud’s position in a recorded video Saturday night, shortly before Herzog announced his choice. “There is only one choice, not national suicide, but national unity,” he said. He called for “a national unity government that will include all the parties of the national camp and all the Zionist parties that want to protect our country.”

That would keep his current allies, including National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit. He called the Arab-led parties “terror supporters.”

Yashar answered that Likud was welcome to join only if it publicly dissolved “the alliance with the extremists,” accepted Eisenkot’s four principles and agreed to enter “a government under prime minister Eisenkot.”

Partners who have drawn lines

Yashar says the government Eisenkot builds will include only lawmakers who accept his four principles. Al Jazeera reported that he has ruled out governing with the Arab-led parties. The Times of Israel described the bloc as still trying to line up partners that include the Arab-led parties, while hawkish members publicly oppose relying on them.

Liberman posted Sunday that he would not support a minority government that depends on Ra’am and the Joint List. “That will not happen,” he wrote. On Friday he said he was ready to accept “painful compromises” on ultra-Orthodox military enlistment to form a government without Netanyahu or the Arab parties.

The clock now running

The new Knesset is sworn in Tuesday, Nov. 10, at 4 p.m. (8 a.m. CST). Eisenkot’s bloc has asked for a vote that day to replace Speaker Amir Ohana of Likud. Ohana said that if 61 lawmakers request an early vote, he will schedule it “no later than one week,” and Israel Hayom reported the change is not expected before next week.

If Eisenkot fails, Herzog has three days to give the mandate to another lawmaker, possibly Netanyahu. That candidate would get 28 days with no extension.

Eisenkot formally opened coalition negotiations Sunday evening, meeting first with Bennett. In an interview with Ynet the same day, Liberman, whom he meets next, warned that “[a]nyone in our camp who talks about a minority government is crowning Netanyahu within six months for another four-year term with at least 70 seats.”

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