Good evening, and welcome to Table Stakes. Today we’re getting into:

An already strained relationship between India and Canada has deteriorated to a new low amid an investigation into an alleged assassination plot carried out on Canadian soil.

The first-ever summit between the European Union (EU) and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) was held in Brussels, Belgium.

And,

Moldovan citizens voted on a referendum to move toward EU membership.

Let's dive in.

The Indo-Canadian Fallout

By: Daniel Murrah

Canadian authorities expelled six diplomats and announced an investigation into multiple Indian representatives, including Sanjay Kumar Verma, India's top diplomat to Canada . The tension comes as a result of the June 2023 death of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Sikh separatist leader, who Canadian intelligence agencies say may have been murdered in a plot by the Indian government.

The Initial Report

 On June 18, 2023, Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Sikh separatist leader, was murdered outside a Sikh temple in Surrey, British Columbia. Months after the killing, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi raised concerns at a G20 Summit regarding Sikh separatist activities in Canada. Just eight days later, on September 18, Trudeau publicly accused Indian officials of "clandestine information gathering techniques, coercive behavior targeting South Asian Canadians, and involvement in over a dozen threatening and violent acts, including murder. Canada expelled a top Indian diplomat following the announcement.

 In October 2023, Canada withdrew 41 diplomats from India over a threat of diplomatic immunity being revoked. The threat was criticized by Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly as a violation of international law and the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations. After this, the situation seemed to go on pause.

Flames Reignited

That was until this October, when Canada expelled six Indian diplomats, including High Commissioner Sanjay Kumar Verma. This expulsion was part of Canada's broader response to what it described as an intensifying campaign by Indian agents against Canadian citizens. The Canadian government cited evidence linking Indian officials to criminal activities such as homicide and extortion aimed at intimidating Sikh separatists in Canada.

The expulsion of these diplomats marked a significant escalation in the diplomatic row between the two nations. Expulsion of diplomats is rare and seen as a partial but concrete severance of ties. In response to Canada's actions, India expelled six Canadian diplomats from its territory, further straining bilateral relations.

The situation has drawn international attention, with countries like the United States urging both nations to continue diplomatic efforts to resolve the situation. The ongoing tensions have also impacted trade negotiations and consular services between the two countries, creating uncertainty for businesses and citizens alike.

 Moving Forward

As the diplomatic tensions between Canada and India continue, both countries face significant challenges in managing their bilateral relationship. The expulsion of diplomats has led to a reduction in consular services, affecting visa processing and other diplomatic functions. This has caused disruptions for citizens and businesses relying on smooth bilateral exchanges.

The Canadian government has reiterated its call for India to cooperate in the investigation into Hardeep Singh Nijjar's assassination. Canada maintains that it has credible intelligence supporting its claims of Indian involvement, which India has consistently denied. The situation has also drawn international attention, with countries like the United States urging a resolution to prevent further escalation.

Trade negotiations between the two nations remain stalled, with no clear timeline for resumption. The diplomatic row has overshadowed potential economic collaborations and investments that could benefit both economies. Additionally, the large Indian diaspora in Canada, which has a significant standing in Canada's culture and politics, is closely watching developments. Ultimately, the future of Indo-Canadian relations are uncertain.

But they don't look great.

Subscribe to Default to read the rest.