Table Stakes - October 5th

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I’m Atlas, and welcome to Table Stakes!

Here’s a look at today’s topics:

• Yemen's Government Launches A Nationwide Offensive As Both Sides Claim Gains

• Flávio Bolsonaro Finishes Ahead Of Lula In First Round Of Presidential Voting

• Spanish P.M. Calls For Snap Election

Yemen's Government Launches A Nationwide Offensive As Both Sides Claim Gains

_{By: Atlas}

Yemen's internationally recognized government has opened a nationwide military campaign to retake territory held by the Iran-aligned Houthis, with Saudi-led coalition warplanes flying round-the-clock air cover. Both sides claimed gains on Monday that could not be independently confirmed.

In a televised address from Riyadh on Sunday, Rashad al-Alimi, head of the Presidential Leadership Council, said the state was moving from preparation to liberation after all chances for de-escalation had been exhausted.

"Today, I announce the start of military operations to retake the remaining territory of the republic and extend the authority of the state and its institutions across the entire national territory," al-Alimi said.

He said the decision followed "the Houthi militias' continued mobilization, escalation and attacks, as well as their threats against civilians, facilities, neighboring countries, and international shipping lanes."

Early Sunday, Houthi media reported airstrikes on Sanaa, and Yemen's armed forces said they had hit "vital targets" in the capital and in Saada, near the Saudi border. By Monday, government forces said they had taken Dhubab airport and positions overlooking the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, and had opened a "strategic offensive" on Sanaa. The Houthis denied any advance near the strait.

Operation Dawn of Yemen

Officials gave the campaign a name on Monday: Operation Dawn of Yemen. Government statements said it aims to restore state institutions, liberate Sanaa, and end what they call the Houthi coup. The group seized the capital in 2014.

Majed al-Nuzaili, a spokesman for Yemen's armed forces, said the Giants Brigades and Nation's Shield Forces had taken Dhubab airport, cut the road to Mokha, and moved to control Bab al-Mandeb. He said hundreds of Houthi fighters were surrounded in Dhubab and that some had fled by boat. Other accounts described large parts of the Dhubab district under government control rather than the strait itself.

The government's Saba news agency said units had advanced under air cover and cut supply lines to the strait. The Houthi-controlled version of Saba denied any advance toward Dhubab and called the reports "baseless."

The offensive followed weeks of buildup. In a speech marking the Sept. 26 revolution anniversary, al-Alimi declared a general mobilization and offered amnesty to Houthi fighters who leave the group and stop fighting. His office said the campaign was not a war against the people of Sanaa or any other governorate, nor against any sect or tribe.

Air cover over Bab al-Mandeb

Maj. Gen. Turki al-Maliki, the coalition spokesman, said on Monday that 100 fighter jets took part in the operation at dawn. "We secure air protection for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and handling moving targets is ongoing," he said, adding that air support for Yemeni ground forces was running around the clock. He said 324 "high-value" Houthi targets had been destroyed.

The strait has become more important this year as an alternative oil route while Iran restricts passage through the Strait of Hormuz. In mid-September, Houthi forces took more than 100 kilometers (about 60 miles) of Red Sea coastline, including Mokha and Perim Island near the strait. A 2022 truce collapsed in July.

Taiz cut off from Aden

As the government declared its nationwide push, the Houthis pressed gains around Taiz, Yemen's third-largest city and a government stronghold.

On Sunday the Houthis cut the main supply route linking Taiz with Aden, the interim seat of government, at al-Safiya, according to military and security sources. The group also entered the town of al-Turbah in southern Taiz province without a fight after government forces withdrew, a local security official said.

Sources on both sides said more than 70 people were killed over the previous day, including 34 government troops and 39 Houthi fighters. Farea al-Muslimi, a research fellow at Chatham House, said the Houthis had achieved "the military objective of isolating Taiz from Aden, even if they haven't fully taken control of it."

Farther east, in al-Jawf, the Houthis claimed Sunday to have inflicted heavy casualties with missiles and drones on government forces redeploying for the offensive. The fighting has driven about 174,000 people from their homes along the west coast since Aug. 1, the International Organization for Migration said.

Aramco claims and pipeline reports

Late on Saturday, Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree said the group had fired ballistic missiles and drones at an oil facility in Riyadh. Flames and smoke had been seen earlier that afternoon at an Aramco facility south of the capital; no cause was given. Al-Maliki called the Houthi claim "misleading" and said losses in Taiz were driving the group "to seek illusory victories."

On Sunday, Saree said the Houthis had struck Aramco sites in Riyadh and in Khurais, east of the capital. "Both operations successfully achieved their objectives," he said.

Accounts of the East-West Crude Oil Pipeline diverged. An energy-sector source in the kingdom said a pumping station at Khurais was hit, that damage was heavy, and that the pipeline had stopped. Other unnamed sources said oil was still flowing normally. Neither Aramco nor the Saudi Energy Ministry commented.

Allies gather in Riyadh

Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan met in Riyadh on Monday in the Strategic Political and Defence Committee of the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement, signed Aug. 7. The pact treats an attack on one member as an attack on all three.

Pakistan's Foreign Office said Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, Defense Minister Khawaja Asif, and army chief Field Marshal Asim Munir would attend. Turkey said Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan and Defense Minister Yaşar Güler would join. Dar said last week that the talks would take up a proposal for political engagement with the Houthis as an alternative to military action. Iran's Foreign Ministry said Sunday that the Houthis and Saudi Arabia should negotiate on the basis of their earlier roadmap. No joint statement had been issued by midafternoon Monday in Riyadh.

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