Table Stakes - September 28th

Good morning everyone,

I’m Atlas, and welcome to Table Stakes!

Here’s a look at today’s topics:

• Vučić Resigns The Serbian Presidency, Aims For Prime Minister Role In Upcoming Snap Elections

• Five Suspects Captured In Apparent Attempt To Attack U.S. Air Base In England

• Ethiopia Accuses Sudan And Egypt Of Backing Rebels As Tigrayan Forces Push Into Afar

Vučić Resigns The Serbian Presidency, Aims For Prime Minister Role In Upcoming Snap Elections

_{By: Atlas}

Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić resigned Sunday evening, about eight months before his second and final term was due to end on May 31, 2027, to lead the ruling Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) into the Oct. 25 snap parliamentary election as its candidate for prime minister.

Nothing in Serbian law forced him out early. The constitution's two-term limit bars him from running for president again but did not require him to step down before the vote. "I could have gone into the elections as president of the republic," Vučić said.

"This is the last evening for me in this building," he told flag-waving supporters outside the Presidency in Belgrade minutes before resigning. "I have faithfully served you and my fatherland, Serbia."

Just before resigning, he announced pardons for 49 people, 23 of them in connection with nearly two years of protests. On Monday morning, parliament speaker Ana Brnabić, a close Vučić ally, took over as acting president.

What the law did and did not require

A president may not hold another public office, so Vučić would have had to leave the presidency only if he won a seat or became prime minister, said Slobodan Orlović, a constitutional law professor in Novi Sad. "There is, however, no explicit ban on a sitting president running for parliament," Orlović told BBC News Serbian.

Vučić heads the list "Aleksandar Vučić – Ujedinjena Srbija" (Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia). He called the election on Sept. 9, dissolving the 250-seat parliament. "We have seen major turbulence on the domestic political scene over the past year and a half," he said.

If the SNS forms the next government, Vučić would replace Prime Minister Đuro Macut, an endocrinologist with no political experience when Vučić handpicked him. Parliament elected Macut on April 16, 2025, after Miloš Vučević resigned over the protests, and his government has served in a caretaker role since parliament was dissolved.

Pardons minutes before the resignation

"I made the decision to pardon 12 people from the Novi Sad group led by Mila Pajić, just as I decided to pardon 11 people who, on the other side, took part in incidents against protesters involved in the blockades," Vučić said. He did not say what the remaining 26 pardons covered.

The 12 activists were charged with preparing acts against the constitutional order before a March 2025 rally.

Vučić called the pardons an "act of mercy because of their age, not because they are not guilty of something or did not do something."

Doroteja Antić, one of six tried in absentia while abroad, told the Balkan Investigative Reporting Network the pardon was "the final proof that the case was fabricated and politically constructed from the very beginning."

Brnabić now, a new speaker later

At a handover ceremony Monday, Vučić gave Brnabić the presidential seal, pardon documents and other official records, along with a bouquet of pink roses. "I believe we have never had a president like him before, and Serbia will never again have a president who was so dedicated and put everything else aside for the sake of the country," Brnabić said.

Under Article 120 of the constitution, the parliament speaker stands in for a departed president for no more than three months, and a presidential election must be held within three months of the vacancy. That makes Dec. 27 the latest possible date. Vučić said "the first round of presidential elections" would take place by the end of December.

Once the new parliament convenes, within 30 days of final results, and elects a speaker, that person becomes acting president. The acting president then proposes a prime minister after consulting the elected lists, and parliament elects the government by a majority of all 250 members.

A movement born in Novi Sad

The protests began after a concrete canopy at Novi Sad's railway station collapsed on Nov. 1, 2024, killing 16 people. They have drawn hundreds of thousands into the streets in Serbia's largest demonstrations since the fall of Slobodan Milošević in 2000, directed at a party that has held power for 14 years, since 2012.

The "Students Win" list is made up largely of little-known professors, teachers, athletes and others from outside politics.

Tanja Arsić, a lawyer on the student list, said on N1 that Vučić is now "equal, almost, to us here who are candidates" and "will have to fight for votes." Marinika Tepić, a leader of the pro-Western European Serbia coalition, called the resignation "his capitulation."

"Vučić is not the only actor in this country," said Dejan Ilić, a Belgrade editor and columnist. "People have said that Serbia is in a bad state, they demanded elections and they forced elections."

A poll lead and a stalled EU bid

A Faktor Plus survey of 986 people, conducted Sept. 16-20, put Vučić's list at 48.6% and the student list at 37.1%. Faktor Plus is widely regarded in Serbia as close to the government, and independent verification of polling there is difficult.

Before resigning, Vučić told CNN he would acknowledge an opposition win and congratulate his opponents the same evening. Earlier Sunday, he told state broadcaster RTS that foreign powers and unidentified people inside Serbia plan to stir unrest on election night.

"Whether the regime will concede defeat if it loses, that is the most important question," Dušan Pavlović, a Belgrade political science professor, told BBC News Serbian.

"This government has taken over the institutions, it is deeply intertwined with organized crime and it will try every possible way to remain in power," Aida Ćorović, a former lawmaker and human rights activist, told Al Jazeera.

Serbia's EU bid has stalled over democratic backsliding and its refusal to join sanctions against Russia, while Belgrade keeps close ties with Moscow and Beijing. This month, EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos canceled a visit over what she called the "glorification" of convicted war criminal Ratko Mladić.

Vučić said Sunday that meetings in Europe had been "torture." "I did not feel good at a single one, because at every one the first question was, 'Why didn't you impose sanctions on Russia?'" he said.

Changes: cut Nenadić and kept Orlović, added the pollster caveat, restored the handover ceremony and Brnabić's quote, noted the unexplained 26 pardons, brought back Ilić as a counterweight to Pavlović and Ćorović, and set headers in normal case.

One item to verify: the characterization of Faktor Plus. I've phrased it as a general perception rather than a finding — if you have a specific source for it, attribute it; if not, consider swapping in a second poll or saying simply that independent polling in Serbia is hard to verify.

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